SunSirs: Crude Oil Plummeted, Benzene Market Weakened This Week (October 26-November 1)

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs’ bulk list, benzene stopped rising and turned down this week. The listed price of benzene on October 25 was 3,580-3,700 RMB/ton (average price of 3,625 RMB/ton); this Sunday (November 1) the listed price of benzene was 3,350-3,650 RMB/ton (average price of 3,575 RMB/ton), a decrease of 50 RMB/ton, or 1.38%, from last week.

Analysis review

Benzene showed a downward trend this week, mainly driven by the sharp drop in crude oil. Although the rise in downstream styrene prices has brought positive benefits, benzene itself has weak fundamentals, the entry of downstream devices has been delayed, high port inventory was difficult to consume, and market conditions have weakened.

In terms of external disks, on Friday (October 30), South Korea imported 450.33 US dollars/ton of benzene, an increase of 7.66 US dollars/ton, or 1.73%, from October 23; East China imported 459 US dollars/ton of benzene, an increase of 9.5 US dollars/ton or 2.11% from October 23.

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health incidents in Europe and the United States has intensified, blockade measures have tightened, the market is concerned about weak demand, and international oil prices have plummeted. Compared with October 23, this week Brent fell 5.03 US dollars/barrel, or 12.2%, and WTI fell 3.7 US dollars/barrel, or 9.28%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent dropped 45.77%, and WTI dropped 40.51%.

Downstream: The fundamentals of styrene were positive. Although the crude oil and styrene futures fell at the beginning of the week, they rose rapidly in the later period. On November 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 7,050 RMB/ton, an increase of 316.67 RMB/ton or 4.7% from last week.

Aniline prices continued to remain stable this week, companies had no sales pressure, and supply and demand were balanced. On November 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6,600-6,700 RMB/ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 6,700-6,800 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health incidents has intensified, and oil prices are expected to continue to be under pressure next week. Follow the progress of negotiations on the US economic stimulus package.

The pressure on benzene ports remains, and the process of destocking is slow. In addition, the current large price difference between domestic and foreign markets has increased import pressure. But entering November, the downstream is expected to have new demand, which will support the price of benzene to a certain extent, and benzene is more resilient. Benzene is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend next week.

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