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Soybean Meal on the Outer Market Has a Strong New High, and the Market for Soybean Meal on the Inner Market has Followed up

September 21 2020 09:05:54     Zhaojin Futures (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2101 opened sharply higher and oscillated on Friday, closing at 3153 (up 80), with a total of 42,000 lots of Masukura and an increase in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: long-term diversified Masukura is the main one, with a large increase in holdings, and the increase is greater than that of shorts, and the concentration is weakened; short diversified Masukura, with increased holdings and a slight increase in concentration. The current supply and demand and weather factors alternately affect the market. The US September supply and demand report is basically in line with expectations. The sharp rise in US soybean meal led to a sharp increase in domestic soybean meal. The early bulls took the initiative to increase the market and the market fluctuated. Soybean meal may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the enthusiasm of long and short funds, the impact of news and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: Uncertainty in the relationship between China and the United States still exists, increasing long-month volatility, supply and demand, and weather factors alternately affect the market. In terms of supply, the overall production of US soybeans is expected to increase. China is speeding up the purchase of US soybeans. Currently, the amount of imported soybeans to Hong Kong is at a high level. In terms of demand, soybean meal stocks have begun to decrease. The approach of the double festival will affect the increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter. Short-term soybean meal spot transactions are under pressure. However, the recovery of the large-scale pig breeding cycle in the fourth quarter is basically determined, and the medium and long-term stimulus for soybean meal demand will rebound. Operational reference: The market callback support area can be mainly placed in far, medium and long-term long-term orders. After a significant increase, you can reduce your position or arrange empty orders to hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2101 may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short-term. Do more at every adjustment and try not to chase higher. Pay attention to the enthusiasm of long and short funds, news influence and changes in market expectations. Short-term operation: hold 10% more capital positions, drop below 3,140 to close the position. If the market drops to the 3,070-3,100 area to stabilize, consider trying more. If the market rises above 3180 and is under pressure, consider reducing more and flattening. Swing operation: Continue to hold 15% more capital positions or fall back to around 3050 and place mid-line long orders. Key short-term positions: 3,135, 3,170.

Market news: National Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a central budget of 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. ADM: Due to the depletion of South American soybean supplies, China is expected to purchase 12.5-13 million tons of soybeans from the United States in the fourth quarter of 2020. The stock of reproductive sows has increased for 10 consecutive months, and the stock of live pigs has increased for 6 consecutive months, both turning positive year-on-year, but still lower than the non-pre-plague level. Soybean imports in August 2020 are expected to be 10.36 million tons. The forecast of soybean import arrivals shows that the import volume of soybeans in 2019/20 is expected to increase by 7.33 million tons (+8.8%) year-on-year; the import volume in 2020 is expected to increase by 6.19 million tons (+7.15%) year-on-year. USDA September supply and demand report: Soybean production was slightly lowered month-on-month, up 21% year-on-year, and high yields were expected to continue; US soybean ending stocks were down 25% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline was reduced from -1% to -20% year-on-year.

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