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SunSirs: The Number of Imported Soybeans Increased Sharply in August, China's Soybean Meal Rebounded Weakly

August 31 2020 08:11:47     SunSirs (Linda)

According to SunSirs data monitoring: Entering the third quarter, soybean meal began to turn things around, and the price bottomed out. In July, soybean meal oscillated and rose by nearly 7%. Beginning in August, soybean meal continued its weak decline at the end of July, and prices plunged and continued to fall by more than 3%. The attempt to rise in the middle of the month was unsuccessful. Near the end of the month, prices returned to the upward trend. The downward trend continued throughout August. At the beginning of the month, the average price of soybean meal was RMB 3,045/ton, and the average price of soybean meal at the end of the month was RMB 3,002/ton, and the price dropped 1.4%.

Long-short game soybean meal still did not rise in August

At the beginning of August, soybean meal tried to continue the rise in July, but the demand for terminal feed fell. In addition, the arrival of imported soybeans increased sharply, the operating rate of soybean oil plants was restored, and the supply was loose. Soybean meal prices ushered in a high dive, falling sharply, with a drop of more than 3 %.

In the middle of the month, the soybean meal price was speculated on the subject of external weather, and the futures market rose, and the spot price continued to rise and failed. The main reason is that soybean meal stocks are under too much pressure. As of August 20, soybean meal stocks increased to 1 million tons, an increase of more than 10% on a week-on-week basis. The spot price of soybean meal continued to decline after rising, falling below the 3,000 yuan mark.

At the end of the month, the extreme weather in the US soybeans is expected to increase, the CBOT soybean prices in the external disk rise, the price of soybean meal returns to the high level, the price bottomed out, and the price rose 2.39% in the last week. As soybean meal fell sharply at the beginning of the month, the final increase did not change the overall downward trend in August.

Imports of raw soybeans have increased sharply, and the market outlook for soybean meal is still under pressure

According to the statistical chart of imported soybeans in July 2018-2020, it can be seen that the peak period of soybean imports has been from July to September over the years, especially in 2020. In April this year, my country imported 6.71 million tons of soybeans, and it reached 9.377 million tons in May, which is close to the highest number in 2018 and 2019. The quantity of imported soybeans in June reached 11.16 million tons. In July, my country’s soybean imports were also at a high of more than 10 million tons, at 10.091 million tons. In 2020, from January to July, my country imported 55.13 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 17.7. %.
The quantity of imported soybeans has repeatedly hit record highs, the supply of soybean meal is under great pressure, and the inventory has been at the line of more than 1 million. At present, the main reason for the increase in soybean meal prices is still the US soybean weather theme. Futures are rising. From the perspective of supply relations, soybean meal will rise in the future. The pressure is still there, and there is limited room for sustained surge.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong has increased sharply, and the supply pressure is still the resistance to the increase in soybean meal prices.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com

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