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SunSirs: The methanol Market is Rising Sharply

October 11 2019 13:57:17     SunSirs (Selena)
  1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has risen sharply since the National Day. As of October 10, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2,392 RMB/ton. Prices were 14.56% higher than the same period last month and 27.43% lower than the same period last year.

  1. Market Analysis

Products: Methanol inventory in northwest main production area is low, manufacturers are not pressured to ship, and prices continue to be strong. After the holidays, the downstream market gradually recovered, some downstream enterprises actively replenished, the inland methanol market shipped smoothly, and the situation in the northwest main production area was good, the operators in the field had a positive attitude, and the market trends around the Bohai Sea and Huaihai Sea continued to rise. On the port side, the trend of the port is strong and the atmosphere of on-site purchasing is good, and the expectations of the operators are still acceptable.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market has fallen partially and the raw material methanol market has a strong trend, but Shandong formaldehyde factories are still in general. Some large factories in Hebei are still running at a low rate, consuming raw material stocks and prices are temporarily stable, but the cost is easy to rise and difficult to fall. The short-term domestic formaldehyde market is mainly followed by price increases.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is weakening. Due to the increasing supply after the holidays, the stock of some acetic acid factories, mainly from spot, increased significantly during the holidays. In recent two days, prices have loosened to stimulate shipments. Some traders with holding goods have also reduced their prices accordingly, and the mainstream market has weakened. The downstream of North China has not yet fully restored to normal operation, the current acetic acid start-up rate is high, and some factories are actively shipping. At the same time, most acetic acid plants have no inventory pressure, and the domestic acetic acid market is expected to weaken steadily in the short term.

Dimethyl ether (DME): The market price of DME has been adjusted as a whole. On-site trading is still acceptable. The average price of DME in North China is 3,407 RMB/ton, which is 53 RMB/ton higher than that in the previous working day. In terms of prices, the overall prices of Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Southwest and the areas along the Yangtze River have risen, while stable prices are dominant in some areas. Market prices continue to rise; manufacturers reflect little resistance to goods, good on-site trading atmosphere.

  1. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ Viewpoint: At present, there is little pressure on stock in the market, the mentality of the manufacturers is strong, and the downstream gradually recovers, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is positive. Methanol analysts from SunSirs expect that short-term domestic methanol market or bid operation will dominate. In the latter stage, attention should be paid to downstream mentality, safety monitoring, and operation of olefin plants, port inventory, and freight level and futures trend.


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