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SunSirs: Cobalt Price Breaks the 30 Mark Again, Market Outlook Risks should be Considered

August 05 2020 08:30:56     SunSirs (Linda)

1. Trend analysis

According to SunSirs data monitoring, cobalt prices have risen sharply since late July, and cobalt prices continued to rise in August. As of August 4, the average cobalt price was 284,833.34 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 15.40% from the average cobalt price of 246,833.33 yuan/ton on July 20, and was 2,243,666.67 compared to the average cobalt price in early July (July 1). Yuan/ton rose by 16.89%. Cobalt prices have skyrocketed since late July, and they continued their upward trend in August and broke through the 300,000 yuan/ton mark again at the high level of cobalt prices on August 4.

2. Outbreak in Africa

According to statistics from the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of 12 o'clock on August 3rd, Eastern Africa time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crowns on the African continent is approaching the one million mark, reaching 957,035. According to data released by the South African Ministry of Health, as of August 3, local time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in South Africa reached 516,862, ranking fifth in the world in total cases. The outbreak of the African epidemic has increased the risk of cobalt ore supply, and most of the cobalt ore in the Democratic Republic of Congo is transported through South Africa. The epidemic in South Africa will also affect the transportation of cobalt ore, and the price of cobalt will increase in the future.

3. Market summary

SunSirs data analysts believe that since late July, due to the risk of the African epidemic, the supply of cobalt ore is expected to decline, which is positive for the cobalt market, and the price of cobalt rises rapidly. The high price of cobalt in August exceeded the 300,000 mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand market has gradually recovered. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have basically returned to the same period in the previous year. The production and sales of domestic mobile phones have also recovered significantly. The growth of 5G mobile phones has increased significantly. Although the demand for cobalt has declined year-on-year compared with previous years, it is more than cobalt during the epidemic. The market has risen significantly, and the overall cobalt market demand is in line with market expectations. The cobalt market is obviously positive; from the global cobalt market, the global new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the demand for the cobalt market has increased, but the global mobile phone market has performed coldly and the demand for the cobalt market has been bleak , The overall global cobalt market demand has declined significantly, which has a greater negative pressure on the cobalt market. In terms of supply, the African epidemic broke out again with the resumption of work and production, affecting the supply and transportation of cobalt ore in the future, and greatly stimulating the increase in cobalt prices. However, the impact of the epidemic on the resumption of work and production in African countries is still unclear at this stage. , The supply risk of cobalt ore in the market outlook is relatively uncertain, and the logic of supporting cobalt prices with the reduction of cobalt ore supply cannot be satisfied. The support for the rise in cobalt prices in the future is uncertain, and the risks in the cobalt market still exist. More attention should be paid to the epidemic in Africa and the response measures of various countries to the epidemic, which may determine the trend of cobalt prices in the market outlook.

Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).

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