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SunSirs: Upstream Three-material Support Strong ABS Peak Season Rise (9.1-9.30)

October 09 2019 11:28:19     SunSirs (Eva)

1.Price Trend

According to the data of SunSirs, spot ABS prices strengthened in September and the domestic market continued to rise. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about RMB 13500.00 yuan/ton, up 4.56% from the beginning of the month.

2.Cause analysis

Industry chain: ABS upstream aspects, since September, the spot market supply of styrene is relatively tight, imports have decreased significantly, and offer prices have strengthened. International oil market shocks fiercely, electronic discs, US dollars, styrene, etc. followed the spot up. Until the late ten days of the main reservoir area in East China, the stock of styrene was abundant, domestic repaired styrene plants were gradually restored to supply, the spot supply of styrene market was saturated, while the enthusiasm of downstream picking-up was reduced, and the high-end price gradually fell, leading to the domestic price of styrene from rising to falling. The recent stock holding and production links in the market are still profitable. After rapid growth, there is no support, and the market has fallen back and sorted out.

In September, the spot market of acrylonitrile-related products was running at a fair price. On the supply side, the industry's inventory is low, and it will take some time for new production lines to export spot. Spot supply is on the tight side, and traders have a clear intention to bid. Downstream traders maintain a cautious attitude, in which the acrylic fiber factory is not high start-up rate, replenishment to maintain just in need. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile quotation will continue to show a high overall trend in the near future.

The spot market of butadiene-related products in September was characterized by high prices at the beginning of the month. The market atmosphere was cautious and the market showed a slight weakening. In the middle of the year, the shortage of spot resources and the price increase of Panjin's supply led to the price increase of the other export manufacturers in the north. In addition, the spot resources in East China have not been significantly supplemented yet. The middleman's offer follows the supplier and pushes up the price with a larger increase. At the end of the month, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and downstream demand is the main demand. Both buyers and sellers return to prudent operation. On the supply side, Northeast factories continue to export goods, the market maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced goods, and the overall quotation is slightly adjusted.

3.Future Market Forecast

SunSirs analysts believe that: in September, the ABS market is on the strong side, and spot prices of all brands have basically risen. The upstream three materials on the cost side have a certain impact on the cost side, especially boosted by the rise in styrene at the beginning of the month. In terms of supply and demand, the recent stringent inspection of environmental impact on plant start-up rate, which in turn affects supply. Downstream household appliances industry entered the peak demand season, ABS demand increased, on-site turnover. Although demand weakened at the end of the month and spot prices declined in some areas, the overall strength of the month was strong. It is expected that ABS in China will show a high adjustment trend in the near future.

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