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SunSirs: Supply Improvement Limited, China ABS Market Froze after Rising in June

July 06 2020 10:25:56     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the data of SunSirs, China domestic ABS market was relatively strong in June, and the spot price of the market was mostly increased. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13,250.00 RMB/ ton, which was 5.58% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

In the upstream of ABS, the mainstream domestic styrene prices fluctuated in June. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of sample enterprises on June 30 was about 5,400.00 RMB/ ton, which was 1.82% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month and 38.64% lower than the same period last year. The contradiction between supply and demand has not changed. At present, the social stock of styrene has fallen down, but it is still at a historical high. In addition, there are more ships arriving in the later period, which may inhibit its growth. At present, with the enhancement of regional security inspection and epidemic prevention, the cost of warehousing freight will further rise, and the spot selling pressure will continue to increase, suppressing the future market trend.

In June, the domestic acrylonitrile market was weak, the operating rate of production enterprises increased, and the spot supply in the market was sufficient. Due to insufficient downstream demand, it is difficult for factories to ship goods, and the actual transaction center is declining. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak.

In June, the domestic butadiene market fell to the bottom, breaking through the new low of the year. According to the monitoring price of SunSirs, the domestic butadiene market price was 4,140 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month, and 3,456 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 16.51% during the month and a decrease of 58.85% compared with the same period last year. In the future, supply pressure may become normal, and the fundamentals are not significantly favorable. China domestic butadiene market continues to fluctuate at the bottom.

The domestic ABS market stabilized after the rise in June, which was due to the positive effect on the market by stimulating helmet consumption and releasing concentrated consumption according to the relevant regulations of helmet safety guard action last month. Therefore, the domestic ABS petrochemical plant is operating at almost full capacity. According to statistics, in June, the overall domestic ABS plant was started about 97%, and the total output was about 335,000 tons. In the first half of 2020, the domestic ABS production was about 1,828,000 tons. In June, the operating rate and output of ABS polymerization plant decreased, indicating that the downstream demand was weakened. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At the end of the month, the market performance was calm, and the downstream factories were mainly cautious in stock preparation. Some brands had a narrow range of 50-150 RMB/ ton, and the trend turned to a stalemate and weak.

Market Forecast

SunSirs analysts believe: ABS market froze after rising in June, the price of each brand was high. The trends of upstreams three raw materials were not good; the cost side support was weak. At present, the ABS spot supply is still limited, the downstreams of the ABS high price goods conflict and just purchase by needs, merchants are currently limited profit margin. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted downward in a narrow range in the near future.

 

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