SunSirs: Energy, Refined Oil Market was Stable in April

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of refined oil kept stable in April, showing a pattern of strong firewood and weak steam. At the end of the month, the price of gasoline was 4,733 RMB/ ton, down 2.97% compared with 4,878 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month; at the end of the month, the price of diesel was 5,078 RMB/ ton, up 0.36% compared with 5,060 yuan /RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: in April, the overseas epidemic continued to spread, the international crude oil storage rose sharply, WTI fell below the negative value, the domestic refined oil market was protected by the "floor price", and the market price remained stable.

Industry chain: at the beginning of the month, the output reduction quota of OPEC+ meeting was lower than the market expectation, and the crude oil demand in April was expected to decline by more than 20 million barrels/ day, or even 30 million barrels/ day; the delivery oil price of WTI futures fell to a negative value in the last ten days, and the future market mentality was pessimistic. In April, the international crude oil market price fell all the way, and WTI crude oil price fell by 39.75%.

Market: on the demand side, domestic car travel has returned to normality, and gasoline demand has returned to normality. However, international oil prices have been declining, and downstream gas stations mainly replenish their warehouses as needed. In terms of diesel, engineering, infrastructure, logistics and transportation still have a strong support for the diesel market. The inventory of downstream customers is not high, and market transactions are still dominated by bargain hunting. Affected by the epidemic this year, travel during the Qingming Festerval and May Day holidays has limited boost to the demand of the refined oil market.

Market Forecast

The analyst of refined oil products of SunSirs believes that OPEC+ crude oil production is not favorable, crude oil inventory is soaring, crude oil price is expected to maintain low operation, and domestic market price of refined oil will also give priority to stable operation of the market.

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