SunSirs: The Retail Price of China Domestic Refined Oil Products Increased again

The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on April 16th, and the retail price of refined oil has once again increased. The retail price in 2024 has gone through four increases, one decrease, and two setbacks. The crude oil market has risen during this cycle, and the rate of change remains positive. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will face a "fifth" increase.

In this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has risen. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $85.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $90.10 per barrel. On the one hand, due to the unstable geopolitical situation, especially concerns about the possible escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel after April, international oil prices have formed strong support. On the other hand, US energy companies have cut the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for the fourth consecutive week, the first time since September 2023. Finally, the global outlook for future oil demand is optimistic, supported by positive factors, and crude oil prices are rising. As of the 16th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 4.14%, corresponding to an increase of 200 RMB/ton and 195 RMB/ton in gasoline and diesel prices. The discounted price of 92# gasoline increased by 0.16 RMB, 95# gasoline increased by 0.17 RMB, and 0# diesel increased by 0.17 RMB. This round of retail price of finished oil products has been raised again.

In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of refineries in Shandong has slightly declined, some large refining facilities in East and Northeast China have entered maintenance, and some refineries in North China have seen a decrease in load. The operating rate of main refineries has also decreased, and a reduction in supply is a major benefit for gasoline. As the May Day holiday approaches, the May Day tourism market is gradually experiencing a peak in bookings. In addition, with the rising temperature and the use of air conditioning, the demand for gasoline has also increased, and the gasoline market continues to rise.

In terms of diesel: On the one hand, the rising trend of crude oil prices has continued to support the cost side, bringing certain benefits to the diesel market; On the other hand, with the rise of temperature, the operating rate of outdoor projects is gradually increasing, and various regions are starting to carry out spring plowing one after another. In addition, with the recovery of logistics transportation and the reduction of supply side supporting the refined oil market, the trend of the diesel market has slightly increased.

Currently, international crude oil prices are maintaining a strong trend, and the instability of the geopolitical situation is increasing. OPEC+ production reduction will continue to be maintained in the second quarter. In addition, with the approaching summer driving season in the United States, gasoline consumption expectations are increasing, and the demand side is supporting crude oil. Overall, oil prices are maintaining a high trend. There is positive support for gasoline supply and demand, and there is still room for upward growth in the domestic gasoline market in the short term; The demand for diesel has increased, and the price of diesel in the market has slightly increased in the short term.

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