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SunSirs: Demand Driven, the Trend of China Gasoline and Diesel has Diverged since March

March 13 2024 10:41:20     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestic refined gasoline and diesel has been divided since March. As of the 12th, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8,540.2 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.84%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,345.8 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.65%.

Cost side: crude oil fluctuates in the range, and cost support still exists

Recently, the international oil price range has been mainly volatile. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.93 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $82.21 per barrel. Entering March, the crude oil market was mainly volatile, and on the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the main boosting factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. The crude oil market is mainly volatile, and costs still have support in the domestic refined oil market.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining production has slightly increased, and supply has increased

Recently, the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased, and the operating rates of main refineries have all increased. Since March, Shenchi Chemical has been undergoing full plant maintenance, but some devices have restarted, and the operating rate of Shandong local refining has increased to about 60%. The increase in local refining supply has had a certain inhibitory effect on the price of refined oil, and the range of changes in the refined oil market is limited.

Demand side: Demand driven differentiation in the automotive and diesel market trend

In terms of gasoline, there is no holiday support in the short term, and residents are returning to daily travel. The performance of gasoline demand is flat, and the trend of gasoline market is sluggish. In terms of diesel, with the rise of temperature, the operating rate of outdoor projects is gradually increasing, and various regions are starting to carry out spring plowing one after another. In addition, with the recovery of logistics transportation, the diesel market trend has risen, and since March, demand has led to a differentiation in the trend of gasoline and diesel.

Currently, there is still a long short game in the crude oil market. The OPEC+ crude oil production reduction policy and the delayed expectation of US interest rate cuts may continue to affect the international crude oil market, and it is expected that international oil prices will remain volatile in the short term. Shandong's refining production has slightly increased, leading to an increase in supply; In terms of demand, there is no holiday support in the short term, and there is little change in residents' travel. There is no improvement in gasoline demand, and the gasoline price market is sluggish; The demand for diesel continues to increase, and the diesel market trend is relatively strong in the short term.

 

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