SunSirs: Energy, the Price of Ground Refined Petroleum Coke Remained Stable Last Week (April 20-26)

Last week (4.20-4.26), the price of refined petroleum coke remained stable. According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of domestic refineries' petroleum coke products was 1,055 RMB/ ton.

On April 26, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from the previous day, 47.26% lower than 155.59 (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and 22.68% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: last week, the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke was relatively stable, and the price of petroleum coke was generally stable.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, US WTI crude oil was $25.03/ barrel at the beginning of last week, and $16.94/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -32.32%; Brent crude oil was $28.08/ barrel at the beginning of the week, and $24.87/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the "US Iran" relationship was once again strained. OPEC+ and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Downstream: at the end of the month, the capital pressure of downstream enterprises is high, and the price of prebaked anode in May has not been determined yet; the demand of calcined coking enterprises is general; the inventory pressure of carbon enterprises is high, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general, mainly on demand procurement. Last week, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. According to the data of SunSirs, as of April 26, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market was 12,476.67 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there was one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There were 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (-34.08%), Brent crude oil (-11.72%), and DME (-7.75%). This week's average was -4.6%.

Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predicted that the market price of petroleum coke in the last week was stable as a whole, and it was close to the end of the month. The capital pressure of downstream enterprises was large. The price of prebaked anode in May has not been determined yet. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, mainly purchasing on demand. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the near future will be stable, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range may be around 950-1,100 RMB/ ton.

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