SunSirs: Buliding Material, Fluctuation of Cement Price in East China

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, in recent period, with the promotion of the resumption of construction site, the demand of cement market in some areas has begun to pick up, but there are also some areas with large inventory and poor demand, and the price is still declining. On April 1, the price of cement in East China was 472.60 RMB/ ton, on April 9, the price was 467.60 RMB/ ton, down 1.06%, and the current price is 0.72% higher than last year.

Market Analysis

Products:

After April, the demand for cement is different from place to place, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range.

In Jiangsu Province, from April 1 to 2, major enterprises in Yancheng region of Jiangsu Province notified the price of high-grade cement to be lowered, with a drop of 20 RMB/ ton. On April 7-8, the market demand increased. Major enterprises in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, notified the price of low-grade cement to be increased by 30 RMB/ ton.

In Zhejiang Province, on April 1, major enterprises in Quzhou and Jinhua regions of Zhejiang Province notified the cement price to be lowered, with a drop of 20 RMB/ ton. Clinker inventory was still at a high level. On April 7, major enterprises in Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, notified the cement price to be lowered, with a drop of 20 RMB/ ton.

In Anhui Province, the market demand is average. On April 8, major enterprises in Chuzhou, Anhui Province, notified the cement price to be lowered, with a drop of 20-30 RMB/ ton.

In Shandong Province, there is less market demand. In early April, the main enterprises in Jining region of Shandong Province notified the price of high-grade cement to be lowered, with a drop of 40 RMB/ ton.

In Fujian Province, the cement sales volume is light. On April 5-7, major enterprises in Zhangzhou and Sanming regions in Fujian Province notified the cement price to be lowered, with a drop of 30-40 RMB/ ton

In Shanghai, the market demand is poor. In early March, major enterprises in Shanghai notified the cement price to be lowered, with a drop of 50 RMB/ ton.

In March, the cement market price in most areas of East China fell. By April, the cement enterprises had basically resumed work, and the resumption of work at the construction site and mixing plant was also relatively ideal. For example, the cement price in some areas, such as Jiangsu, also began to rise tentatively. As the core consumption market of cement, the cement mill in East China is now operating at more than 70%. However, the overall demand for cement has recovered slowly this year, and the current price rise is still regional.

Industry chain: upstream: in March, the coke market continued to fall, down three times, with a cumulative reduction of 150 RMB/ ton. By the end of 31, the main transaction price of quasi first grade wet quenching coke in Shanxi was about 1,550-1,650 RMB/ ton. At the beginning of this month, due to the start-up of downstream steel plants had not fully recovered, the demand for coke was limited, and the price of coke declined. After the middle and late ten days of March, the steel plant gradually returned to work, mainly purchasing coke on demand. In April, environmental protection and production restriction will take place in Hebei Province. In April, the iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of A and B in Tangshan city will not limit production. The iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of C will implement hierarchical management and control. The demand of steel plants is limited and there is no strong support for coke. The coke enterprises have stable operation and low price. Downstream: from January to February, the national real estate development investment was 1,011.5 billion yuan, down 16.3% year on year.

Market Forecast

According to the prediction of SunSirs, the cement demand in East China is fair in the near future, and there are tentative increases in some regions. With the further increase of demand in the later period, after the digestion of inventory, and gradually with the arrival of market peak and peak season, the cement price may rise in a restorative way, but the demand for water mud is delayed this year, and the specific time of price rise is still unknown. Therefore, analysts of cement products of SunSirs believe that in a short period of time, the cement market is dominated by a narrow range of shocks.

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