SunSirs: 2025 Cement Output Drops to 1.693 Billion Tons, Marking Lowest Level Since 2010

In 2025, China's cement market endured a challenging year marked by persistent demand decline and significant pressure on profitability. Entering 2026, the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, a series of investment stabilization policies outlined at the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to bring opportunities for the cement industry. However, the true recovery of industry profitability will ultimately depend on the implementation strength of supply-side reduction policies.

According to National Bureau of Statistics data, China's cement production in 2025 reached 1.693 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, marking the lowest level since 2010. Digital Cement Network monitoring indicates that the average transaction price for cement nationwide in 2025 was 367 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan per ton or 4.4% from the previous year. Some regions even witnessed price competition below cost levels, with inventories remaining persistently high. According to the China Cement Association, the industry's total profit for 2025 is projected to be approximately 29 billion yuan, still at a relatively low level.

Zhou Yuxian, President of the China Cement Association, pointed out that the underlying causes of industry volatility stem from the structural contradiction between “absolute overcapacity during the demand downturn cycle” and “lagging transformation of the industry's development model.” While cement market demand has entered a decline phase, effective production capacity remains substantial, resulting in severe supply-demand mismatch. Guided by the “Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026),” the industry has reached a high level of consensus on “countering internal competition, stabilizing growth, and strengthening self-discipline.”

Supply-side capacity management is accelerating. By 2025, the cement industry has achieved the withdrawal of over 160 million tons of actual production capacity through capacity replacement or supplementary capacity measures. Li Chen, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Cement Association, explained that relevant guidelines issued by the General Office of the State Council have designated prohibiting new capacity additions, phasing out outdated capacity, and implementing peak-shifted production as primary means to reduce excess capacity. Multiple policies have been in effect for years, providing a solid institutional foundation for industry self-regulation.

While domestic demand faces pressure, exports have become a crucial force stabilizing industry operations. According to customs statistics, China exported 11.71 million tons of cement and clinker in 2025, marking a 118% year-on-year increase. The industry's overseas expansion has reached a scaled phase, with 46 production lines established across 21 countries. Taking Huaxin Building Materials Group as an example, it has invested in over 60 building materials production plants across 14 Belt and Road partner countries, with overseas operations and under-construction cement facilities exceeding 40 million tons of annual capacity.

The intensity and sustainability of supply-side adjustments in the cement industry are expected to persist. Capacity replacement will accelerate the exit of outdated production facilities, with clinker capacity utilization rates projected to rise in the medium term. By 2026, strengthened supply discipline consensus led by industry leaders and intensified off-peak production measures will provide a floor for profitability. Should physical demand stabilize and improve, cement prices could exhibit significant elasticity during peak seasons.

Looking ahead to 2026, supported by policies to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand, infrastructure investment bolstered by increased fiscal support is expected to become a key driver of cement demand. The decline in demand is projected to narrow compared to 2025 levels. The core factor determining the industry's profit recovery will be whether an industry-wide consensus can be formed and implemented on reduction policies such as “overproduction control” and “peak-shifted production.”

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