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SunSirs: What Did Natural Rubber Experience Reaching the 10-Year Lowest?

April 01 2020 13:05:10     SunSirs (Daisy)

Compared with the highest price of more than 40000 RMB, the price that has fallen by three-quarters, used to surge three times in 2019 (On March 4, 12070 RMB/ton for the first time price is high; On June 11, 12020 RMB/ton for the second time prices high; On December 6, 12290 RMB/ton for the third time). Meanwhile, the year has faced twice downward trough (At the end of April and early May at 10700 RMB /ton 10260 RMB/ton at the end of July early August), But none of them were as worrying as the first three months of 2020. According to the SunSirs’ monitoring on the east China region, natural rubber 18 years treasure island milk market data show that the price on March 30 was about 9,100 yuan/ton, and this price has been about a fifth of the highest price of gum, is the lowest in 10 years. From the single month of March, the price of 9,100 yuan/ton at the end of the month is about 1,300 yuan/ton lower than the mainstream price of 10,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 10.67%.

According to the data of the last period, the main contract of Shanghai glue broke ten thousand on March 18, 2020, and the contract of Shanghai glue still decreases with fluctuation. The lowest price on 27th intraday was 9,300 RMB/ton, which has fallen below the low of 9,350 RMB/ton set by Shanghai glue on November 30, 2015. And 30 days Shanghai glue intraday the lowest price of 9115 RMB/ton, once again a new low price. Looking back at the historical trend, the low level of Shanghai glue is 8715 RMB/ton on December 31, 2008, that is to say, Shanghai glue is currently at the lowest price in 11 years.

Raw Material Supply: Currently, rubber production at home and abroad is in the low season, and the weather in China's main producing areas is dry and powdery mildew appears in some areas. It is expected that the cutting time will be delayed, and the output will be lower than in previous years. Southeast Asian market is affected obviously, gum output and export transportation are affected obviously. China's domestic year after the arrival of rawer materials import, and the impact of production factors on the market is not clear. According to statistics China's existing natural rubber inventory can be maintained for 3 months of consumption, that is, China's first quarter mainly rely on the existing inventory consumption. From the prevention and control situation, the current domestic situation is positive, all walks of life orderly resumption of production. But the foreign situation is very serious, and the recent southeast Asian rubber countries continue to take measures.

Thailand: On April 16, prime minister Prayuth cha-cha said he would propose to his cabinet to cancel the Songkhan holiday on April 15, 2013. Thailand's northeast burin am province was closed Thursday. On June 26, Thailand activated the state of emergency law and imposed it for one month. On March 29, Thailand Phuket province announced that from March 30 to April 30, the closure of all but air routes in and out of Phuket land waterway. The southern Thailand rubber producing did not lock doan, but in Malaysia to Thailand rubber sealing city transportation caused serious influence. Southern Thailand, sand mound, Trang exports accounted for 30% of total exports of Thailand, which after Malaysia port transit exports accounted for about 40-50%. According to the proportion computation, it affects the Thai exports will be around 40000 tons, and Thailand are urgent deployment in Thailand port. The price of raw rubber in Thailand fell, with the price of cup glue hitting a record low. Data show that up to March 27, the price of glue in Heai region of Thailand is 35.5 baht/kg, the average price in March is 38.93 baht/kg, down from February by 2.73 baht/kg; Cup glue price of 27.5 baht/kg, march average price of 30.97 baht/kg, compared with February down 2.79 baht/kg.

Malaysia: The prime minister of Malaysia announced on March 16 that he would tighten restrictions nationwide for two weeks starting from March 18 to strengthen prevention and control of public health incidents. On March 18th the port of Penang in Malaysia was closed to Thai goods. "City Lock Down" measures under Malaysia's domestic high inventory pressure is huge.

According to data from Malaysia, 2019 glue production of about 650000 tons, accounting for 4.55% of global natural rubber production, China's imports from Malaysia in 2019, 699000 tons, accounting for 13.28% of China's total imports of natural rubber in 2017-2019 average monthly imports in 65000 tons of Chinese from Malaysia. Malaysia will directly cause the Chinese city of the seal from Malaysia imports to reduce 3-35000 tons. Domestic rubber processing factory and city "lock-down" make Malaysia basic is in shutdown state, will import demand for Thailand concentrated emulsion and African plastic materials

Indonesia: Indonesia's President Joko Widodo has appealed to religious leaders to help fight the disease, refusing to close the city but ordering widespread testing as the country's exports suffer little impact.

India: The government announced a three-week nationwide blockade that began on March 25. The sudden "closure" of the city caused a big shock to the Indian society, resulting in the stagnation of logistics, production shutdown and supply chain disruption, which inevitably hit the Indian economy.

Inventory Data: As of March 27, the warehouse receipt inventory of the previous stock exchange was at a low level in the same period, but the inventory of imported rubber to the port after the year had accumulated. It is said that the inventory at the spot end of natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone was high and the pressure was high. 

As of March 27, the natural rubber stocks of the previous period were 242,467 tons, down 1907 tons from February 28, and futures stocks were 236,670 tons, down 1,730 tons from February 28 and 184,750 tons from the same period in 2019. The last energy no. 20 rubber inventory was 73,829 tons, up 11,917 tons from February 28, and the futures inventory was 53,545 tons, up 9,777 tons from February 28. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao free trade zone is 753,400 tons. Among them, the bonded area inventory is 188,000 tons, general trade inventory 565,400 tons.

Import And Export Volume: According to customs data, China imported 840,200 tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber) in January February 2020, up 5.03% from the same period in 2019. In January and February 2020, China's import standard was 223,100 tons, an increase of 39,600 tons compared with the same period in 2019. 23,300 tons of imported cigarette glue, an increase of 0.01 million tons compared with the same period in 2019. 526,900 tons of imported mixed rubber, an increase of 21,100 tons over the same period in 2019; The import of composite adhesive was 8,900 tons, down by 4,600 tons compared with the same period in 2019.

Demand Factors: 1. Tires: In March, domestic tire enterprises returned to work and production in a stable manner. At first, the domestic epidemic situation was well controlled, and the enterprises were positive.

2. Passenger Cars: Under the special situation, the domestic demand for passenger cars is greatly reduced. Statistics from the China association of automobile manufacturers show that in February, China's passenger car production and sales reached 195,000 units and 224,000 units, down 86.4% and 86.1% month-on-month and 82.9% and 81.7% year-on-year respectively, higher than the overall drop in automobile production and sales. Affected by the sharp decline in the market in February, the production and sales growth of passenger cars in January and February also showed a sharp decline, with 1.631 million and 1.831 million vehicles respectively. From the first 10 days of the Chinese association of automobile manufacturers to control the resumption of production in March, compared with February there is a great improvement. In mid-to-late march, China's auto industry resumed work and the situation improved further. 

3. Substitute Rubber: The current international crude oil slump has a direct impact on the commodities of its chemical industry chain. The decline in crude oil leads to the reduction of butadiene cost and the subsequent reduction in the cost of synthetic rubber. On March 4, many foreign tire manufacturers closed factories, the tire industry is seriously affected.

Industry Policy: On March 17, the ministry of finance and the state administration of taxation issued the announcement on raising the export rebate rate of some products, saying that from March 20, 2020, the export rebate rate of 1084 products will be raised to 13%. We will raise the export tax rebate rate on 380 items to 9%. The export rebate rate of synthetic rubber will be increased from 10% to 13% to encourage the export of synthetic rubber. But the microscopical environment is not good, the downstream demand is serious under the influence of shrinking, the synthetic rubber export pressure is obvious.

Market Forecast: SunSirs natural rubber analysts believe that the first quarter of the special situation, for the natural rubber market. Although China's domestic situation is better, tire enterprises to resume production, but foreign situation uncontrollable factors, still lead to commodity concerns and bearish. This month, the price of natural rubber has fallen sharply from about a quarter of the market's highest level to about a fifth, and the price of shanghai natural rubber has fallen sharply to its lowest level in a decade. Although the current production is limited, supply abroad, is a good adhesive for days. However, under the special situation, crude oil fell, the global economic slowdown, and day glue supply chain hit. The downstream demand and order serious atrophy, rubber and the domestic day social inventory high, before the Spring Festival after the production enterprise production peak season in sight. In the foreign control situation is still tense, the demand is not much improved, natural rubber market is still worrying. We will pay close attention to the impact of the situation on commodities and hope that the inflection point will come soon.

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