SunSirs: Natural Rubber Spot Market in China Forecast to Remain Range-Bound

The import volume of natural rubber has welcomed a seasonal increase, and social inventories and bonded area inventories will continue to accumulate; synthetic rubber prices continue to decline, which to some extent suppresses the demand for natural rubber. It is expected that the spot market price of China whole latex in the sales area will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, mainly around 1.4-1.5 ten thousand CNY/ton.

Xinhua Finance in Beijing, December 16 (2025) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released the market dynamics of natural rubber in November 2025. According to the monitoring of the State Farm Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in November, the market price of Thai RSS3 rubber showed a stable trend with a slight increase month-on-month, and the average price increased month-on-month. The market price of Indonesian SIR20 rubber showed a stable trend month-on-month, and the average price decreased month-on-month. The spot price of China SCRWF rubber in the main sales areas was basically consistent with the foreign market, and the overall price fluctuated between 14,300-14,950 CNY/ton throughout the month, with the price center moving down compared to the previous month.

Main production areas abroad: In November, the average price of RSS3 in Thailand was 2048 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton compared to the previous month, with a highest price of 2095 USD/ton and a lowest price of 1995 USD/ton; the average price of SIR20 in Indonesia was 1683 USD/ton, down 9 USD/ton compared to the previous month, with a highest price of 1705 USD/ton and a lowest price of 1650 USD/ton; the average price of RSS3 futures contracts in Singapore was 2047 USD/ton, up 26 USD/ton compared to the previous month, with a highest price of 2120 USD/ton and a lowest price of 1999 USD/ton.

China main producing areas: In November, the production in Yunnan producing area was relatively stable, the raw material was normally released, and the weather conditions in Hainan producing area improved, the raw material price fluctuated slightly. The monthly average price of fresh rubber (dry rubber) in Yunnan and Hainan was 13,921 CNY/ton and 14,279 CNY/ton, respectively, an increase of 98 CNY/ton and 526 CNY/ton compared to the previous month.

China main sales area: In November, the average price of China SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 14,721 CNY/ton, a decrease of 302 CNY/ton compared to the previous month, with the highest price at 14,950 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 14,350 CNY/ton; the average price in the Qingdao market was 14,658 CNY/ton, a decrease of 227 CNY/ton compared to the previous month, with the highest price at 14,900 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 14,300 CNY/ton. The average price in the Tianjin market was 14,661 CNY/ton, a decrease of 281 CNY/ton compared to the previous month, with the highest price at 14,900 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 14,300 CNY/ton.

On the import side: According to the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 250,300 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 10.24% year-on-year; the average import price was $1,744.78/ton, a decrease of 2.61% year-on-year; from January to October, the cumulative import was 2,439,700 tons, an increase of 27.97% year-on-year. In October, China imported 256,400 tons of mixed rubber, a decrease of 9.72% year-on-year; the average import price was $1,807.95/ton, a decrease of 1.45% year-on-year; from January to October, the cumulative import was 2,749,100 tons, an increase of 9.65% year-on-year.

Analysis and Forecast: In November, the China main production areas gradually entered the production reduction period. With the temperature dropping, the output declined. In the main production areas of Southeast Asia, there was mostly rainy weather, and the release of raw materials was not smooth. The production scheduling of tire enterprises recovered somewhat, and the capacity utilization rate rebounded compared with October. Exports steadily increased and demand continued to be released. The heavy - truck market continued the "eight - consecutive - increase" trend, which supported the price of the natural rubber market. However, the bonded and general trade inventories in Qingdao area shifted to a state of inventory accumulation, with a relatively large increase in inventory. As the purchase subsidies for passenger cars in various regions came to an end, the sales volume of passenger cars declined both year - on - year and month - on - month. Under the combined effect of these factors, the central price of the natural rubber market moved down compared with the previous month.

In December, the rubber tapping in Yunnan, Hainan, and Guangdong will gradually stop, and the China raw material supply will significantly decrease; the demand for cars at the end of the year may be released concentratedly, which is expected to drive the sales volume of passenger cars and heavy trucks to go up, all of which will support the market price of natural rubber. However, the main producing areas abroad are in the peak production period, and with the recovery of production after the later period of rainfall, the overall supply is expected to be on the rise‌; the import volume of natural rubber welcomes a seasonal growth, and the social inventory and bonded area inventory will continue to accumulate; the price of synthetic rubber continues to decline, which to some extent suppresses the demand for natural rubber‌, all of which factors suppress the market price. Combined with the forecast, the China whole milk rubber spot market price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, mainly around 1.4-1.5 ten thousand CNY/ton.

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