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SunSirs: Analysis of Domestic Ferrosilicon Spot Market in March

March 31 2020 14:24:35     SunSirs (Molly)

1.Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, the price of ferrosilicon this week is mainly down. At present, the price of the main offer in the domestic market of FeSi 75 # is around 6,000 yuan/ton. The price of ferrosilicon 72 # is 5350-5600 yuan/ton, which is a slight decrease from the price of ferrosilicon last week.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Near the end of the month, on the one hand, the bidding progress of ferrosilicon in mainstream steel mills has been slightly slower; the supply and demand of the market has slowly recovered during the month; the time span for bidding for ferrosilicon in steel mills has been longer in March; therefore, some steel mills have no intention of starting a new round of ferrosilicon at the moment Tender. Most of the ferrosilicon retail market is based on inquiries.

On the other hand, as the spot price of ferrosilicon continued to consolidate at a low level, the pressure on funds increased at the end of the month, and ferrosilicon plants shipped positively. At present, most of the ferrosilicon manufacturers focus on the production of delivery documents, and under the cost factor, their willingness to further reduce prices and take goods has weakened. Furthermore, last week, the silicon-based committee of the Ferroalloy Industry Association held a video conference calling on the industry to control production and save itself. And it is understood that some major manufacturers in the main production areas have begun to move, although for the time being has not had a large impact on the market, but the industry mentality has improved.

In the downstream market, according to the relevant analysis of the steel market, the risk of economic downturn is intensified due to the spread of the global epidemic. Domestic snails fell sharply, merchants' mentality weakened, and their willingness to ship was significantly increased. However, shipments are still not good, the overall transaction volume is still lower than the same period in previous years, and downstream terminal demand is becoming more cautious. Traders also turned pessimistic about the market outlook. The downward pressure on the spot has doubled. Considering the increase in funding pressure at the end of the month, the spot is mostly weaker. It is expected that the short-term steel market price may continue to weaken.

However, due to insufficient demand in the magnesium metal market, the price of magnesium in the city was still under pressure at the beginning of the week. It is reported that the quotations for 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu factories are mainly concentrated around 13600-13700 yuan /ton. Considering that the current factory inventory is not large, and rigid demand will also provide strong support for the market, it is expected that the decline in the magnesium market will also be limited. It is expected that the short-term magnesium market price may consolidate and adjust in a narrow range.

In terms of the futures market, today the main ferrosilicon futures contract opened low and went high in 2005. It opened sharply lower in the early trading, and then fluctuated slightly throughout the day. It fluctuated around the daily average online. The intraday high was 5386 points and the lowest was 5280 points. One trading day decreased significantly, and the number of positions decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day.

3. Market Forecast

In the short term, SunSirs analysts predict that ferrosilicon prices will decline.

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