SunSirs：Manganese Ore Prices Tentatively Rise Amid Elevated Supply, Silicomanganese Sees Narrow-Range Fluctuations

Last month, the spot market of silicomanganese basically followed the futures market and fluctuated within a narrow range. Although the futures market has been boosted by the recovery of market sentiment or various favorable influences such as macroeconomic policies, the price of silicomanganese may rebound from a low level, but the supply and demand situation has not improved. In addition, the cost support has declined, and the rebound in silicomanganese prices is difficult to form a sustained trend. According to the data of SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the market price of silicomanganese in Ningxia (specification FeMN68Si18) at the end of this month was around 5500-5600 RMB/ton, and the average market price was 5564.00 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 0.80% from the beginning of the month.

Influencing factors

Silicomanganese supply level is high

Last month, some factories in Inner Mongolia were expected to undergo maintenance, but the overall output was less affected. Combined with the increase in output of new ignition furnaces, the overall alloy output did not fluctuate much, and there was no sign of large-scale production cuts. There were both increases and decreases in production in the Ningxia production area, and the overall output did not fluctuate much. There is no expectation of large fluctuations in the subsequent start-up in the short term, and the production loss is still 300-400 RMB/ton.

As for the current electricity price in the south, the cost of some factories is around 5,800 yuan. There is currently little profit margin in the market and the willingness to start production is low. In Guizhou, the full-time electricity fee is about 0.5 RMB. Currently, only a few factories maintain general production. Large factories are operating normally, but manufacturers in Xingyi said that they will stop production one after another at the end of June, and it is expected that Xingyi will be in a state of complete shutdown in July. After the Yunnan region entered the flood season in June, the factories that had stopped or reduced production in the early stage gradually resumed production. It is expected that the start-up rate will gradually increase in July, reaching the highest level this year.

As of June 27, 2025, the output of silicomanganese was 165,200 tons, an increase of 2,450 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.51%; the average daily output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 34.18%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous period.

According to incomplete statistics, as of June 27, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises was 221,800 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons from the previous month. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 55,000 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous month; Ningxia had 140,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month; Guangxi had 6,500 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous month; Guizhou had 5,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous month; (Shanxi, Gansu, Shaanxi) 6,300 tons, the same (Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing) 9,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous month.

Manganese ore market is running strong

According to the news: Due to the frequent train derailments on the railway lines from some mining areas in South Africa to Saldanha Bay Port and Elizabeth Port in recent months, the shipping efficiency of some manganese mines has slowed down, and some mines have reduced shipments in July. It also stated that Jupiter is not planned to be shipped to China in July, and the shipment volume of NMT to China in July has been reduced to 1 ship.

At the end of June, the market heard that South African manganese ore shipments were reduced. The silicomanganese market was boosted by the news and the manganese ore market was running strong. Some traders raised their quotations by 0.5 RMB/ton. As of June 27, 2025, the total inventory of major manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port was about 3.526 million tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from last week. The arrival of Gabonese ore this month has decreased, and the current inventory is still at a historically low level. In addition, the high import cost and the concentrated supply of high-quality oxide ore and semi-carbonic acid ore arriving at the port in early July, and the expected tight circulation, have triggered market sentiment to support prices.

According to the latest data from the Port Hedland Authority, the manganese ore shipments from Port Hedland in May 2025 were 82,000 tonnes, a month-on-month increase of 9.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.28%, of which 82,000 tonnes were mainly shipped to China.

UMK announced the price of manganese ore to China in July 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at US$3.85/tonne, down US$0.05/tonne from the previous round. South 32 announced the price of manganese ore to China in August 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at US$3.9/tonne (↑0.05) and Australian manganese ore at US$4.35/tonne (↓0.05).

At present, the price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Tianjin Port is 39-40.5 RMB/ton degree, the price of semi-carbonate blocks is 33.5-34 RMB/ton degree, and the price of Gabon blocks is 37-38 RMB/ton degree; the price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Qinzhou Port is 39.5-40.5 RMB/ton degree, the price of semi-carbonate blocks is 33.5-34 RMB/ton degree, and the price of Gabon blocks is 39.5-40 RMB/ton degree.

Hot metal production remains high

It is reported that the blast furnace iron is at a high level, the electric furnace is also operating at a high level, and the steel mills are profitable. The blast furnace operating rate of the steel mill is 83.82%, which is the same as last week and 0.71 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.83%, which is 0.04 percentage points higher than last week and 1.70 percentage points higher than last year; the steel mill profit rate is 59.31%, which is the same as last week and 16.45 percentage points higher than last year; the average daily molten iron output is 2.4229 million tons, which is 1,100 tons higher than last week and 28,500 tons higher than last year.

The bidding prices of mainstream steel mills are priced around 5650-5700 acceptance tax inclusive, and are currently fluctuating within a range. As the supply of low-priced goods in the market shrinks, it is more difficult for steel mills to negotiate prices.

The tender price of silicomanganese alloy of Hesteel Group in June is 5650 RMB/ton, which is 150 RMB/ton higher than the inquiry price and 200 RMB/ton lower than the price in May. The purchase quantity is 11,700 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 100 tons. The latest tender price of silicomanganese alloy of a steel mill in Southwest China is set at 5650 RMB/ton in cash, 30 yuan/ton higher than the previous round of price, and the purchase quantity is 1500 tons. The latest tender price of silicomanganese alloy of another steel mill in Southwest China is set at 5650 RMB/ton in cash, 50RMB/ton higher than the previous round of price, and the quantity is 1000 tons.

Market Forecast

On the whole, on the one hand, the manganese ore price increase and the high molten iron production support the demand for silicomanganese, while on the other hand, the silicone manganese supply level is also at a relatively high level, coupled with downstream price pressure and low inventory. SunSirs believes that in the short term, the silicone manganese market may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.