SunSirs: Methanol Market Rose Sharply

1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the China domestic methanol market has risen sharply since September. As of September 18, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2,184 RMB/ton. Prices fell 1.80% from the same period last month and 32.25% from the same period last year.

2. Market Analysis

Products: Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol-to-olefins, the methanol market is active in line with the pre-National Day downstream stockpiling. Mainland enterprises have shipped smoothly, and the focus of market negotiations has been continuously raised. Inventory in Northwest China is low and prices are high; trading around Bohai area is optimistic and has risen sharply; Huaihai area has a positive mentality and continues to rise; shipments in central China are smooth and keep up with the increase; futures are high and volatile, and port prices are rising. At present, Shanxi, Mongolia and other upstream enterprises can ship goods temporarily, the enterprise inventory pressure is not large, and the mentality performance is strong.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market is strong and upward, boosted by the recent cost side, the formaldehyde industry's offer rises, downstream purchasing is on demand, and the trading atmosphere is still acceptable, but the current raw material port market has fallen, the growth rate of the mainland has also narrowed, the cost side support has been slightly loosened, short-term domestic formaldehyde Market or high-level consolidation.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is running steadily for the time being. At present, the inventory level of most acetic acid factories is not high, and most of them are stable prices. However, the industry has a high rate of start-up, users just need to take delivery of goods, under the pressure of weak spot turnover, and the mindset of the industry is negative. In addition, during the National Day holiday, highway transportation is limited, and some factories are actively delivering goods to reduce inventory. The mindset of the operators is weak, and the short-term market is expected to be weak.

Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether market prices continue to rise, the market trading atmosphere is good. The market price continued to rise as a whole. Although crude oil fell slightly, its impact on the market continued. Businessmen's psychology of speculation remained unchanged. Although the trend of gas market was weak, the trend of growth remained firm. The price of methanol in North China rose again by about 200 RMB/ton. With this good support, the market of dimethyl ether expanded further. Domestic price difference is not big, manufacturers reflect that the equipment is in full load status recently, shipment is smooth, inventory pressure is not large. It is expected that short-term domestic dimethyl ether market price increases will be narrowed.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ Viewpoint: At present, the market is operating in a positive atmosphere, manufacturers’ ship smoothly, and the mindset of the operators is strong. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to rise, but in the latter part, they still need to pay attention to the resistance of downstream enterprises to high-end sources, and suggest cautious operation.

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