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SunSirs: Energy, Continuous Exploration of Port Quotation and Continuous Pressure Fluctuation of Coke

March 06 2020 15:49:33     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: Coke 2005 closed at 1,830 (down 3) this Thursday under pressure, with a total reduction of more than 6,000 positions and reduced trading volume. The decline of coal price weakens the cost support of coke, gradually eases the supply and completes the second round of lifting and lowering. Short term or continuous pressure fluctuation of coke.

Spot: the overall transaction of coke market is average, and the second round of increase and decrease of 50% accelerates the landing. Quotation of metallurgical coke: Rizhao grade II 1,850, Tangshan grade II 1,800, Linfen grade I 1,700. For coke enterprises, after the recovery of coke coal supply, the capacity utilization rate and coke daily average output of coke enterprises have been improved, the coke supply shows a slight increase trend, and the enthusiasm of coke enterprises for delivery is still high after the second round of increase and decrease. On the steel plant side, the passive production reduction is still continuing due to the inventory pressure and demand delay. After the increase and decrease, the demand for coke has not increased. The main control is to purchase coke on demand, and the short-term weak operation of coke spot.

Strategy analysis: in the first quarter of the current economic pressure, the government strengthened macro-control, increased counter cyclical regulation, loose policies to stabilize the market. In the near future, the state will guide the orderly resumption of production, loose monetary policy, stable investment in infrastructure and other macro policies will increase, and the demand for black energy varieties is expected to increase in the later period, which will support the low level of far month contracts. This year, some regions still have Coke capacity reduction tasks. The supply side of coke is loose for a short time. Due to the influence of inventory pressure and cash flow, the downstream steel plants passively reduce production. The demand for short-term coke is compressed and the spot is under pressure.


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