SunSirs: China Coke Market Has Temporarily Stabilized after Two Rounds of Price Increases and Decreases

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, on December 17, 2025, the average price was 1,496 RMB/ton. The two rounds of coke price increase and decrease last week have been fully implemented, and the third round of coke price increase and decrease has been launched. The overall market is mainly under pressure.

On the market side: From the perspective of market mentality, the sluggish shipment, weak market transaction atmosphere, and strong wait-and-see sentiment have hit the market mentality. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, market expectations are relatively pessimistic, and caution continues to be exercised. It is expected that the market mentality will not improve in the short term.

In terms of demand, there is a clear off-season characteristic on the demand side, and the pace of traders replenishing inventory has slowed down. At the same time, there are not many downstream casting orders, and the enthusiasm for downstream production is weak. In addition, the economic viability of scrap steel is strong, and the demand for pig iron remains in a state of rigid demand. In the short term, the weak demand is difficult to change, and market prices will continue to operate mainly at a weak level. ‌‌

In terms of steel mills: With the further deepening of the off-season, building materials consumption is expected to continue to weaken, and steel mills are gradually entering maintenance. There is a weakening expectation in coke demand, but steel prices have shown resilience recently. Although coking coal prices continue to decline, with the completion of the annual tasks of coal mines, there is an expectation of reduced coal supply, and the downward trend of coking coal prices is gradually narrowing. ‌‌

Implementation of price reductions: After implementing two rounds of price reductions for coke, the operation has temporarily stabilized. Recently, the decline in coal prices has narrowed, and the downward speed of coal costs for coke enterprises has slowed down. However, the profits of coke enterprises are still acceptable, and the production situation is relatively stable. Enterprises that reduced production due to environmental protection in the early stage are gradually increasing production, and the marginal supply of coke is being repaired.

The coke analyst from SunSirs believes that there is a downward expectation for coke prices in the short term, and the third round of price cuts is currently underway, putting pressure on the overall market.

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