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SunSirs: Operation and Forecast of Phenol & Bisphenol A in Mid-February

February 21 2020 12:11:26     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

After a long gap, the phenol-bisphenol A chain finally fell in mid-February. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the phenol market in East China reported an offer of 7,450 RMB/ton on February 10, and the current offer fell to 7,200 RMB/ton. From the perspective of the major markets, they have fallen by 200-300 RMB/ton. The market for bisphenol A in the East China region was small on February 10, and the overall pre-holiday price was maintained at 10,900 RMB/ton, and the current offer fell to 10,500 RMB/ton. The pressure on the supply of raw material products has continued to increase, terminal resumption has been delayed, logistics recovery has been slow, and market bearishness has concentrated.

 

Analysis review   

Product: From the perspective of supply and demand, the phenol ketone unit has been in operation since before the festival. At present, the operation of Huizhou Zhongxin unit has been reduced to 60% and the maintenance has been postponed to March. The operation of Gaoqiao 240,000 ton unit is 80%, with high inventory and high delivery pressure. The supply of bisphenol A is sufficient, and the overall domestic operating rate is 70%. At present, the 40,000-ton/a unit of Huizhou Zhongxin in the bisphenol A plant has postponed the original end of February maintenance. The 120,000t/a unit of Mitsui of Sinopec was overhauled in the last ten days of this month. At present, the inventory of the plant is constantly increasing. The Lihua yiweiyuan and Changshu Changchun units are reduced to 80% and the Formosa plastic units are 60% in operation.

On the demand side, the situation of epoxy resin enterprises in Shandong and Huangshan areas returning to work in recent two weeks is not ideal. After the 20th, there are still some enterprises returning to work in succession. At present, the transportation is gradually alleviated. The state has issued the high-speed and free policy to support domestic transportation and logistics, and drivers and migrant workers continue to return to work. The resumption of downstream phenolic resin is delayed, and the start-up situation is normal, and the overall recovery is still in progress. For downstream PC companies, the current operating rate of PC companies is 50%, and the company's inventory is still at a high level. Logistics makes it difficult to pick up the goods, and the demand for raw materials is mostly contracted.

From a cost perspective, due to the impact of U.S. sanctions, Venezuela's oil exports have decreased, market concerns about supplies have increased, and oil prices have risen sharply. Brent closed at $ 59.61/barrel, up $ 2.3 from the previous day. Propylene recovered and the market price of propylene continued to rise. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong has been declining all the way. On the 11th, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly and then fell. The prices in the next few days were mixed. The price started to increase on the 17th, and it rose 200-250 RMB/ton on the 20th. The current market turnover is around 6,400-6,600 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price is around 6,400 RMB/ton, with an overall increase of 5%. In terms of cost, it has risen recently after the previous period of downturn, or it will gradually show a positive trend in the late period.

The continuous rise in crude oil has brought good benefits to pure benzene. The current pure benzene market has stopped falling and stabilized. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, Sinopec Group Qilu Petrochemical in North China quoted 5,450 RMB/ton, Yangzi Petrochemical in East China quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, Hainan in South China Refining and chemical offer 5,500 RMB/ton, Central China Wuhan ethylene offer 5,500 RMB/ton, Sinochem Changyi Petrochemical offer 5,800 RMB/ton, Jingbo Petrochemical offer 5,351 RMB/ton, Dongming Petrochemical offer 5,500 RMB/ton, HSBC Petrochemical offer 5,500 RMB/ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 5,050 RMB/ton.

Industrial: SunSirs has investigated more than 20 enterprises in the national phenol ketone industry chain. Most of them are in operation, but the operation rate is 30% lower than that before the festival (including parking). In the middle of February, the operation rate shows a downward trend and then a stable trend. Overall, the logistics and transportation problems are gradually alleviated, but in the whole chain, with the passage of time, the transaction time in February is gradually shortened, and the short-term increase in demand remains difficult. Lack of mentality, frequent low prices, and the focus of negotiation keeps falling.

 

Market outlook

At present, the country has pressed the "return to work" button. After February 17, various return data show that the rate of rework has risen sharply, enterprises are gradually recovering, and the economy is recovering. And according to the statistics of SunSirs, the return to work continued to improve after February 20. With the support of the high-speed free policy, the demand is getting better and the volume of transactions is greatly increased. In the short term, enterprises are short of funds after a period of gap period. In order to stimulate transactions as soon as possible, there are many enterprises that take goods at low prices. In late February, the market is still in the recovery and adjustment period. Phenol & Acetone may continue to decline, but the activity of the whole industrial chain increases, and the enterprise's operating rate increases. In late February, Phenol & bisphenol A market will continue to decline. In March, with the end demand of resin and other terminals, the market may improve.

 

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