SunSirs: The Domestic Phenol Market Rose first and then Fell in June

Price trend

In June, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase and a slight month on month increase in average price. According to data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic phenol market price was 6,687 RMB/ton on June 1st and 6,747 RMB/ton on June 30th, an increase of 0.9%.

Analysis review

In the first ten days after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the rising price of benzene as the raw material, traders pushed up their offer. Supported by the cost side, traders actively pushed up their offer, but the demand side was less than expected. The terminal was cautious in chasing up, and the overall increase was far less than that of benzene; The sharp drop in crude oil prices in the latter half of the month had dragged down the price of benzene, affecting downstream products and causing the market to fall again. However, considering the high monthly average price and the low pressure on contract shipments at the end of the month, there was limited room for profit margins.

In terms of equipment in June, early shutdown facilities such as CNOOC Shell, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Huizhou Center Phase I, and Gaoqiao Petrochemical were still in operation. The 350,000 ton/year unit of Tianjin Petrochemical was shut down for 40 days and resumed operation on June 2nd. The 320,000 ton/year phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou was shut down for maintenance on June 13th, lasting about 30 days.

As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Market outlook

SunSirs’ expects that Yangzhou Shiyou will resume production in terms of equipment and Zhenhai will refine products. The domestic supply is expected to increase compared to June, with an estimated monthly output of nearly 500,000 tons. In terms of ports, the expected replenishment of ocean going cargo contracts will decrease, and there will be little pressure on ports. Continue to pay attention to the changes in benzene driven by crude oil, as the cost is increasingly affected by the phenol market. Downstream, phenolic resin is in a relatively off-season, while other industries remain stable. Overall, the phenol market is still more bearish than bullish, with a price range of 6,500-6,750 RMB/ton.

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