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SunSirs: Energy, Demand and Transportation are Limited, Methanol Market Falls again

February 14 2020 09:39:33     SunSirs (Selena)

1  Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fell again. As of February 13th, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2,005 RMB ton. Price fell 8.34% month on month and 9.03% year on year.

2  Market analysis

Products: during the Spring Festival, most of the methanol enterprises are in normal production, while the traditional demand drops to the freezing point of the year. Due to public safety emergencies, most of the downstream methanol enterprises that have stopped are not back to work, and the logistics recovery is very slow. The pressure on the raw material procurement and finished product sales of the downstream methanol enterprises is prominent. After the festival, the main downstream start-ups are generally reduced by 7-40%, such as acetic acid, MTO, MTBE, etc., which makes domestic methanol The demand is even worse; although the start-up of methanol enterprises decreased by about 10%, they are still in the pattern of oversupply at present, and the short-term methanol trend is still declining, but many transaction prices fall below the cost line, and it is estimated that the decline will slow down.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. Formaldehyde and downstream enterprises are still not back to work, the short-term domestic formaldehyde market will remain depressed.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is stable. Downstream overall construction is still on the low side, the overall automobile transportation in the market is limited, the transaction in acetic acid market is not smooth, and the inventory quantity of some manufacturers continues to accumulate. As a whole, the market is negative. Under the deviation of continuous supply exceeding demand, the acetic acid market is in a passive stalemate, with stable short-term offers and weak long-term ones.

DME: the transaction price of domestic DME Market is mainly stable, and the trading atmosphere is general. The price of the main production area is 3,100-3,150 RMB/ ton, which is stable; the price of Southwest China is reduced by 50 RMB/ ton to 3,300-3,450 RMB/ ton due to poor delivery.

3  Market Forecast

From the perspective of SunSIrs: on the positive side, it is difficult to purchase raw materials and sell costs for methanol plants, and the production load of some methanol production enterprises is reduced; in Iran, the methanol plant shut down due to gas restriction at the early stage is still not recovered, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to decline in February. On the negative side, since the Spring Festival, domestic methanol downstream products have shown different performances, and the overall demand has shown a downward trend. Except for the smooth commencement of acetic acid, DMF and other downstream products, the rest have decreased to varying degrees; the commencement of methanol to olefin enterprises has slightly decreased, and the units of Inner Mongolia Jiutai, Zhongtian Hechuang and Ningxia Baofeng have decreased by 20-30%; the other two sets of MTO units in the port have maintenance plans in late February. The methanol analyst of SunSirs predicted that in the short term, China's methanol market might be weak.

 

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