SunSirs: Energy, Methanol Market Continues to be Strong

1  Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market continues to be strong. As of January 9, the average price of the domestic methanol is 2,195 RMB/ ton. The price is 1.97% higher than that of the same period last month and 3.47% lower than that of the same period last year.

2  Market analysis

Product: domestic methanol market continues to be strong, with strong local trend. In terms of the inland market, the overall shipment is smooth in the near future. At present, the inventory is not under pressure. The methanol market in Shandong, North China, central China and southwest China has increased to varying degrees. In terms of the port market, with the trend of futures being stronger, the overall market has moved up obviously. At present, there are uncertain factors in the international macro level, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong.

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight has continued to rise in part, with reference to 270-360 RMB/ ton for North line to Lubei, including 340-360 RMB/ ton for Daqi to Lubei, 270-300 RMB/ ton for road to Lubei, 310-430 RMB/ ton for South line to Lubei, 160-240 RMB/ ton for Guanzhong to Lubei, 200-260 RMB/ ton for South line to Lubei, 190-310 RMB/ ton for Shanxi to Lubei, 250-260 RMB/ ton for Guanzhong to Lianyungang, 350-360 RMB/ ton from Ningxia to North Shandong, 720 RMB/ ton from Xinjiang to North Shandong.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is temporarily stable. Under the influence of low demand in the downstream market, the pressure of formaldehyde enterprises' delivery and inventory increased, and the production cost could not be transferred to the downstream market, which led to the recent low start of formaldehyde Market and some losses.

Acetic acid: the overall domestic acetic acid market rose slightly. Due to the overall shortage of spot supply in the early acetic acid market, the short-term domestic demand for acetic acid downstream industry is stable, and there is no shortage of short-term supply to rise again. However, considering the inventory pressure in the later spring festival, it is expected that the overall growth of the acetic acid market is limited.

DME: the domestic market of DME is fair, and the price is rising broadly, which further stimulates the terminal purchase mentality. Take Henan Province as an example, at present, the price adjustment range of mainstream enterprises is more than 30 RMB/ ton. The price of Xinlianxin is 3,260 RMB/ ton, of Yongcheng is 3,300 RMB / ton and of Baoma is 3,200 RMB / ton.

3  Market Forecast

From the perspective of SunSirs, on the positive side, macro: the situation in the US and Iran is still tense, and there is a certain support for crude oil and methanol products in the short term; Arbitrage: under the arbitrage between the mainland and the port, partial shipments are still acceptable; Inventory: at present, the overall inventory in the mainland is not under pressure, and the inventory of some enterprises is low; near the Spring Festival, the transportation capacity is tightening, the short-term freight is on the rise, and the arrival cost is increasing. On the negative side, weather: in rainy and snowy weather, the circulation of goods is limited, and partial shipments are limited. The methanol analyst of SunSirs predicted that the domestic methanol market may maintain a strong market in the short term, and the impact of freight changes on the market should be continuously concerned.

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