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SunSirs: Recent Rise of Cobalt Price does not Reflect the Continuous Market

December 31 2019 10:53:24     SunSirs (Linda)

1. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of cobalt has risen steadily in the past two weeks. As of December 30, the price of cobalt was 269,166RMB/ton, up 3.66% from the average price of 259,666RMB/ton on December 15. Can the rise of cobalt price represent the warming of cobalt Market and the sustainability of the future market?

2. Market analysis

LME cobalt price

In recent two weeks, the international cobalt price still fell. Last week, the decline of cobalt price was temporarily stable, but there was no obvious support for the rise of cobalt market, and the future cobalt market was limited.

Domestic market analysis

There is a large increase in cobalt price in Wuxi stainless steel trading center market, but the volume of transactions does not increase significantly, which indicates that there are still a large number of social stocks in the market, which will be put into the market when the price of cobalt rises, and the supply of cobalt market is sufficient.

In terms of demand, data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 110,000 and 95,000 respectively, down 36.9% and 43.7% year on year. According to the data of China Academy of communications, in November 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 34.842 million, down 1.5% year on year. On the demand side, the demand for cobalt fell sharply.

3. Future prospects

A data analyst at SunSirs believes that with the recent rise of domestic cobalt price, the market of cobalt seems to be very good, and cobalt has become the "hottest" metal. But in the speculation cobalt hot big market, should more calm analysis, the recent cobalt price rise is a reaction to the cobalt market, the future market can continue? From the perspective of demand, the poor production and marketing of new energy vehicles is not news, and the mobile phone sales are not getting better. The poor demand of cobalt market is still the main theme in the near future and in the future. In terms of supply, Glencore's production suspension of cobalt ore is the main support point for the recent rise of cobalt price. However, from the stock of Wuxi stainless steel trading center, we can see that there are still more social stocks in the cobalt market. In the short term, there will be no shortage in the cobalt market, and there is no support for the continuous rise of cobalt price. Generally speaking, the rising of cobalt price is the main expectation of cobalt Market for the future market, but at the same time, influenced by the relationship between supply and demand, cobalt price has no power to keep rising in the near future, and it is expected that the future cobalt price will mainly fluctuate and maintain stability.

Relevant lwasted companies: Huayou Cobalt Industry(603799), Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.,Ltd.(300618) and China Molybdenum Co.,Ltd.(603993).

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