- Price Trend
According to data monitoring of business agency SunSirs, the average price of LNG on December 2 was 4,623.33 RMB/ton, and on November 25 was 4,350 RMB/ton, up 6.28% in 7 days, up 5.88% compared with the same period last year. On December 2, the LNG commodity index was 113.96, down 0.65 points from yesterday, down 45.46% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.52% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of December 3, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 4,570 RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 4,500 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. was 4,300 RMB/ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 4,550 RMB/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 3,750 RMB/ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao was 4,550 RMB/ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 4,750 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. was 40,00 RMB/ ton, and the price of LNG varied from place to place.
Market analysis: in the near future, LNG continues to rise in waves as a whole. Since the northern cities have gradually entered the winter heating period, the regional cities have started to burn and replenish warehouses, driving the overall demand to rise. Due to the low LNG price this year, there is a phenomenon of cost hanging upside down. In addition, near the Spring Festival, manufacturers are eager to turn over and push the price strongly. They actively push the price up every time. However, due to the lack of follow-up on the demand side, the LNG price rise is weak. After the rapid rise, it slows down, and then rises and slows down again. There are also different ups and downs around. At present, the supply in the market is fair, the domestic demand is general, and the shipment is affected by the rainy and snowy weather in many places, which is not conducive to LNG's increase. Many times of pushing price behavior has made LNG price in high position, and downstream fatigue gradually revealed, which is difficult to support the rising trend. On December 2, the LNG pipeline of China Russia east line was officially put into operation for ventilation, which led to large-scale price reduction of the liquid plant, and the soaring market on October 31 was hard to reproduce.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 47th week of 2019 (11.25-11.29), there were nine kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were LNG (6.90%), coke (3.09%) and methanol (1.30%). There were five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top 3 products were dimethyl ether (DME) (- 3.91%), petroleum coke (- 3.31%) and MTBE (- 1.42%). Last week's average was 0.3%.
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