Price trend

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 55,183.33 RMB/ton, down 5.77% from the price of 58,561.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and down 19.89% year-on-year.

According to the weekly change chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, copper prices rose for 2 weeks and fell for 10 weeks. Recently, copper prices have fallen continuously.

Analysis review

Macro: The recent good employment and high inflation data have made the market expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates by 75 basis points this month, and the market is still worried about the occurrence of a future economic recession.

Fundamentals: The supply side and the mine end had more disturbances, and the processing fee was reduced, but the domestic smelter had increased significantly. The demand was poor, and the operating rate and processing fee of copper pipes and copper rods had fallen. In addition to automobiles, other areas entered the seasonal consumption off-season, and downstream purchases remained cautious amid price declines. The real estate industry, which had just improved, was making waves again. Last week, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 71.44%, down 0.91 percentage points, and the power grid had replenished storage.

Market outlook

To sum up, copper prices are generally still affected by concerns about the economic recession in Europe and the United States, and the market sentiment is still relatively pessimistic. With the rapid decline in the previous price, the market is gradually digesting the negative impact, and copper may continue its weak trend in the near future.

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