1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of SunSirs, toluene fell continuously this week. On April 8, the price was 7390 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 15), the price was 7180 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 29.59%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil fell first and then rose this week, with an increase of more than 10% for three consecutive days. Although crude oil rose broadly and the cost side boosted the toluene Market, the buying in the toluene market was light, the downstream gasoline industry continued to decline, the logistics and transportation were blocked, the operators were pessimistic, and the price decreased with the main refineries.
In the external market, driven by the rise of crude oil, toluene in Asia rebounded after falling in the external market this week. On Thursday (April 14), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1044 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $15 / ton, or 1.46%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week, and the overall price rose. At the beginning of the week, the news that the International Energy Agency planned to release crude oil reserves on a large scale continued to affect the market, with European and American crude oil futures falling more than 4% in a single day. However, according to relevant news, Russian oil production decreased significantly, superimposed on the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil rebounded rapidly, rising for two consecutive days, with an increase of more than 10%. As of April 14, Brent rose $8.92 / barrel, or 8.68%; WTI rose $8.69/barrel, or 8.84%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price was 19250 yuan / ton on April 8 and 18825 yuan / ton on April 15, down 2.21% from last week and up 15.26% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year. PX prices rose slightly this week. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were US $1182-1184 / T FOB Korea and US $1200-1202 / T CFR China.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell continuously this week. The price was 8628 yuan / ton on April 8 and 8341.2 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.33% from last week and up 13.14% from the same period last year. Recently, the epidemic situation in some areas rebounded, people's travel was limited, the demand for gasoline was relatively reduced, and the on-site price fell.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the European Union may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, driving the rise of oil prices. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The cost side support remains unchanged, but under the influence of domestic public health events, the logistics and transportation are blocked, the toluene used by refineries for gasoline is reduced, the export sales are increased, the toluene supply is increased, the downstream demand remains weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is increased, and the toluene may still fall. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.
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