On March 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 98.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.62% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 18.89% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
Commodity price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs , in March, China's polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, ionic degree of 10-30) fluctuated and decreased, of which the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was about 17014.29 RMB/ton on the 31st and 16128.57 RMB/ton on the 1st, with a monthly decrease of 5.21%. At present, the production of the enterprise is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; Weak downstream demand and average transaction; Recent public health incidents have a great impact on all parts of the country, with relatively tight transport capacity and a certain increase in costs.
Industrial chain: according to the data of SunSirs, the upstream raw material acrylonitrile fell first and then increased slightly in March. At present, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market is about 11650 RMB/ton; Acrylic acid, the raw material, fell in the acrylic acid Market in March. On the 31st, the acrylic acid Market in East China was 15366.67 RMB/ton, down 4.57% from 16033.33 on the 1st. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the support of cost side is insufficient, the support of supply and demand side is flat, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.
Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the SunSirs, the domestic LNG market fell as a whole in March, with a decline of about 13% in the month. With the warmer weather, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption, the demand in the North has decreased, and the logistics in some areas has been affected by the holding of the two national games and the Paralympic Games. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, the market supply has increased, and the negative factors have superimposed, resulting in the decline of domestic liquid price. In the middle of the year, due to the small inventory pressure of liquid plants and the increase of demand in the South due to cold air factors, the market trading has improved, and the price has increased slightly, However, the demand follow-up was general and fell rapidly after the rise. In the second half of the month, due to the differences in local liquid prices and more resource outflows, the market was strongly driven up, and the price trend showed an upward trend. At present, the price of the terminal is about 7200-9700 RMB/ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China is US $30.32/million British heat, and the price is reduced. The heating plant is expected to enter the domestic liquefied gas market in April, and the inventory of liquefied natural gas tends to be stable.
Future forecast: at present, the prevention and control of public health events in Shandong and Henan production areas are tense, and the delivery and transportation are affected to a certain extent. In addition to the transportation cost, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials increased slightly this week, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient. Affected by weak downstream demand, polyacrylamide market is expected to remain stable in the future.
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