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U.S. Market is Closed, China's Domestic Soybeans Tend to Fluctuate
July 06 2021 08:26:04Ruida Futures(Linda)

External disk trend: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Friday, while soybean meal fell. CBOT November soybean futures rose 3.5 cents to 1,399 cents per bushel, December soybean meal contract rose -0.4 dollars to 388.3 US dollars per short ton; December soybean oil contract rose 0.8 cents to 62.28 cents per pound.

Disk trend: ①A2109 closed at 5823, which was 1.68% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 163762 lots and open interest of 101241 lots, -4356, and the price difference between A9 and January was -63; ②B2108 closed at 4342, -0.75% from the previous trading day , The trading volume was 40913 hands, the open interest was 19720 hands, -2185; ③M2109 closed at 3655, -0.76% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 1001257 hands, the open interest was 1,172537 hands, -47182 hands, the basis difference between Jiangsu spot and M2201 was -134 , And M2109 basis -155, M9-January spread of 21; ④Y2109 contract closed at 8542, -0.16% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 916555 hands, the open interest was 408344 hands, -11170, and the Y9-January spread was 170.

News: 1. According to EU data, from July 1st to June 27th, 2020, EU-27 imports of soybeans in 2020/21 will be about 15.03 million tons (last week 14.87 million tons), and rapeseed imports will be about 15.03 million tons. It was 6.3 million tons (6.16 million tons last week), soybean meal imports were about 16.52 million tons (16.29 million tons last week), and palm oil imports were about 5.21 million tons (5.11 million tons last week). 2. According to the quarterly inventory report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the soybean stocks stored in various parts of the United States on June 1st were 767 million bushels, which was lower than the market estimate of 787 million bushels and 1.386 billion bushels in the same period last year. In March On the 1st, it was 1.564 billion bucks. Before the report, the market forecast range was 696-952 million cats, with an average of 787 million cats.

Market price: domestic soybean price is 5440. The price of soybean meal from oil plants in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu: 3500,-40. Dealers in Tianjin area offer 9140 first-class soybean oil. Zhangjiagang dealers quoted 9130. Traders in Guangzhou quoted 9060. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Warehouse receipt inventory: Bean first warehouse receipt 19,831 lots, -22 lots; Dou second warehouse receipt 600 lots, 0 lots. Soybean meal warehouse receipts were 23,578 lots, 0; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 6,100 lots, 0 lots.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Douyi 2109 contracts are 67044, -1915, short positions 65351, -3547, and the net positions are 1693; the top 20 long positions of Douyi 2108 contracts are 13924, -518, short positions 13494, -1049, and the net positions are 430. Soybean meal 2109 top 20 long positions 763535, -37140, short positions 853136, -16452, net positions -89601. The top 20 soybean oil 2109 contracts are long 271041, -12745, short 296201, -6535, and net position -25160. (Unit: hand)

View summary: As the summer vacation and the graduation of fresh graduates are approaching, consumer demand in the school cafeteria is sluggish. Coupled with the low price of vegetables, the high price difference between soy products and vegetables also limits the demand for soybeans. At the same time, the price of pork is low, and the ratio and substitution effect of animal protein to vegetable protein is gradually emerging. The overall sluggish downstream demand has dragged down the price of domestic beans. At present, the source of soybeans in Northeast China mainly flows to the nearest storage and storage points. However, the State Reserve has lowered the soybean purchase price, and traders have insufficient confidence in the future soybean market, which also drags down the spot price. After June 30, the Russian soybean tariff will be adjusted from 30% to 20%, which is expected to have a certain impact on domestic soybeans. On the disk, as soon as Bean lightened its position and went up, the short-term downward momentum weakened. However, under the background that domestic beans have not yet begun to go on the market, it is expected that the short-term impact of US soybeans will be greater, and the view of shock is maintained for the time being.

The weekly crop growth report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday shows that as of the week of June 27, 2021, the excellent growth rate of soybeans in the United States is 60%, and the average market estimate is 61%, compared with 60 in the previous week. %, compared with 71% in the same period last year. That week, the U.S. soybean seedling rate was 96%, compared with 91% in the previous week and 94% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 92%. That week, the flowering rate of soybeans in the United States was 14%, compared with 5% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 13% and a five-year average of 11%. The good rate of U.S. beans has been lower than expected for three consecutive weeks, showing that weather factors have a certain impact on growth. In Argentina, the weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that the progress of the Argentine soybean harvest in the past week has advanced by 0.5%. As of the week of June 16, Argentina's soybean harvest in 2020/21 reached 99.4%, which was higher than the 98.9% a week ago. The harvested soybean yield is 43.3 million tons, with an average yield of 2.67 tons per hectare. From a disk perspective, Dou Er oscillated at a high level, paying attention to the pressure above 4500 yuan/ton.

Soybean meal: In terms of U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybeans are currently in the growing period, and precipitation is the key to soybean growth. Meteorological models show that this week the northern soybean producing areas of the United States have more rain than before, but the north and south Dakota and Minnesota states have less rainfall, and the central production areas have less rainfall, with only sporadic rainfall. Under the background that the sown area of ​​U.S. soybeans is less than expected and the inventory level is low, precipitation has a greater impact on U.S. soybeans. From the perspective of soybean meal fundamentals, domestic soybean crush continued to decline last week, and soybean meal output decreased, but feed farming companies were still slow in picking up goods, and soybean meal stocks fell slightly. On June 28, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil plants was 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last week, an increase of 420,000 tons from the same period last month, an increase of 150,000 tons from the same period last year, and an increase of 8 over the average of the same period in the past three years. Million tons. In addition, due to the loss of crushing profits, it is expected that from August, the import volume is expected to fall, which will limit the supply of soybean meal. On the demand side, the demand for soybean meal continues to stabilize under the inertial growth of pig production capacity. In the later stage, the focus will be on the cost support of US soybean prices to soybean meal. On the disk, soybean meal bottomed out and rebounded. Under the background of the US market closed, the trend tended to fluctuate. Pay attention to the pressure near 3780 yuan/ton above.

Soybean oil: In terms of US soybeans, US soybeans are currently in the growing period, and precipitation is the key to soybean growth. Meteorological models show that this week the northern soybean producing areas of the United States have more rain than before, but the north and south Dakota and Minnesota states have less rainfall, and the central production areas have less rainfall, with only sporadic rainfall. Under the background that the sown area of ​​U.S. soybeans is less than expected and the inventory level is low, precipitation has a greater impact on U.S. soybeans. From the perspective of oil and fat fundamentals, as of June 28, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants in the country was 850,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 280,000 tons, and a decrease from the average of the same period in the past three years. 530,000 tons. Recently, the quantity of domestic soybeans arriving in Hong Kong is still huge. Although some oil plants have stopped production due to the expansion of soybean meal, the overall crushing volume is still too large. It is expected that soybean oil stocks will continue to rise in the future. The 35,652 tons of soybean oil sold by China National Grain Corp. had a transaction rate of 42%. The policy pressure to maintain supply and stabilize prices still exists. Regarding palm oil, strong exports in June provided support to the market. The Indian government announced that the import duty on crude palm oil will be reduced from 15% to 10%. The new tariff will take effect on June 30 for a period of three months. India is the world's largest importer of vegetable oil, and this tax cut is expected to expand palm oil imports. From the disk perspective, in the context of the US market closed, the trend of soybean oil tends to fluctuate, and the early-stage multiple orders continue to hold.

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