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Arrivals are Limited, Palm Oil Continues to be Strong
May 14 2021 08:28:05Ruida Futures(Linda)

External disk trend: On Tuesday, it fell 20 MYR, or 0.46%, and the closing price was 4345 MYR/ton.

Disk trend: P2109 closed at 8338, 4.67% from the previous trading day; trading volume 812215, open interest 413415 hands, 11383; P9-January spread 426.

Market dynamics: 1 Shipping survey agency SGS released data showing that Malaysia’s palm oil exports from May 1-10 are expected to be 455,285 tons, an increase of 32.3% from the 344,039 tons exported in the same period in April. 2 According to data from ITS, a shipping survey agency, Indonesia’s palm oil exports in April 2021 were 2.73 million tons and 2.18 million tons in March, an increase of 25.2% from the previous month.

Market price: Traders in Dongguan, Guangdong, quoted at RMB 8,960/ton for 24°C palm oil and RMB 230/ton.

Warehouse Receipt Inventory: Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt: Warehouse Receipt 1800 lots, 500 lots.

Main positions: palm oil 2109 contract top 20 long positions 257643, 2667, short positions 316372, 13283. (Unit: hand)

Summary: From a fundamental point of view, according to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Press Association (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil output increased by 2.01% from April 1-30, the oil yield increased by 0.1%, and the output increased by 2.5%. The recovery of horse palm production was not as good as expected, limiting the accumulation of horse palm stocks. According to data released by independent inspection company Amspec Agri, Malaysia exported 469,875 tons of palm oil products from May 1-10, an increase of 36.5% from 343,356 tons on April 1-10. The export growth rate of horse palm keeps growing, which has a positive impact on the disk. However, Ma Zong is locked down until June 7 due to the intent of the epidemic, which will greatly affect the food and beverage demand for Eid al-Fitr beginning on May 12. However, it also affects the supply of labor and has an impact on output. Domestically, as of May 7, the total palm oil inventory was 486,000 tons, a week-to-week ratio of -21,000 tons. Domestic inventories are still low, supporting palm oil. In addition, the import price is upside down and there is ship washing behavior, resulting in small arrivals at the port, shortage of goods in parts of the north, and factories queuing to pick up goods. Both restrict the space below palm oil. From a disk perspective, palm oil remains strong and tends to be treated with more ideas.

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