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Poor demand, Palm Oil Continues to Decline
February 04 2021 08:16:23Ruida Futures(Linda)

External disk trend: On Tuesday, it fell 92 MYR, or 2.64%, and the closing price was 3397 MYR/ton

Disk trend: P2105 closed at 6480, -2.85% from the previous trading day; trading volume was 657804, open interest was 378,739 hands, 11853; P5-9 month spread 420.

Market dynamics: 1 The Malaysian government announced on the 2nd that the 'movement control order' implemented in most parts of the country was extended to February 18. Defense Minister Ismail Sabri Jacobs, who is responsible for coordinating epidemic prevention and control measures, said at a press conference that day that health department data shows that the number of new confirmed cases of new crowns in Malaysia's states continues to increase every day, so The government decided to extend the action control order originally scheduled to expire on February 4. 2 Shipment survey agency Intertek Testing Services (ITS) released data showing that Malaysian palm oil exports in January were 1,059,225 tons, compared with 1,685,958 tons in the same period last month. Exports decreased by 37.17% from the previous month.

Market quotation: Traders in Tianjin, 24 degrees palm oil, 7060 tons, -140 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang area traders, 24 degrees palm oil, 7060 yuan/ton, -150 yuan/ton; traders in Dongguan, Guangdong area, 24 The degree of palm oil is 6980 yuan/ton, -190 yuan/ton.

Warehouse receipt inventory: palm oil warehouse receipt: warehouse receipt 1200 lots, 0 lots.

Main positions: the top 20 palm oil 2105 contracts are long 250,000, 5439, and short 262512, 10350. (Unit: hand)

Summary: In order to meet the pre-holiday stocking demand, the oil plant carried out the last impulse at the end of the year. Last week, the oil plant's crushing capacity increased to 2.15 million tons, an increase of 2% on a weekly basis. The year is about to close. The pre-holiday stocking is almost over, and the consumption of edible oil will decrease. Soybean oil inventories have not dropped significantly. In addition, as the Chinese New Year approaches, capital instability is still large, which is negative for the oil market. In addition, the Indian government raised the import tariffs on crude palm oil and lowered the basic import tax on crude palm oil from 27.5% to 15%. However, a 17.5% surcharge will affect the demand for palm oil. However, there is still no pressure on domestic oil supply. The current stock of soybean oil is around 800,000 tons, and the stock of edible palm oil is about 605,000 tons. In addition, due to the poor early profit of palm oil, the overall purchase of ships in the first quarter is relatively small. After losing 3 ships of palm oil (cancellation of the contract), palm oil stocks are slowly accumulating in the later period, and the recovery of palm oil production under the influence of the epidemic and floods has been slow, and Indonesia raised the export tax on palm oil products in February, which will increase the export of palm oil in the later period. prospect. On the disk, short-term palm oil may continue to adjust, backed by the 60-day moving average, short rallies, and 50 points stop loss.

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