According to SunSirs data monitoring: Since November, soybean oil palm oil has ushered in a wave of gains under the support of external profit factors. After the big rise, the market has declined. Starting in the middle of the day, terminal consumer demand has increased, and soybean oil palm oil has once again ushered in the rise. . As of November 19, the average market price of soybean oil was 8,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.34% from the beginning of the month, and the average market price of palm oil was 7,112 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.99% from the beginning of November.
According to the monthly rise and fall of soybean oil from 2019 to October 2020, it can be seen that in 2019, soybean oil rose for 7 months and fell for 4 months, with the largest increase of 13.41% in August. In the fourth quarter of the traditional oil consumption peak season, soybean oil increased mainly in October and December, with an increase of more than 8%, and in October it was close to 10%.
Soybean oil prices have been declining in the first four months of 2020. Soybean oil has been rising for the next six months, with the largest increase of over 12% in July, and the increase of soybean oil in August and October was around 7 points. Halfway through November, soy oil continues to usher in a big rise, and the overall price has risen by more than 8%.
According to the monthly increase and decrease chart of palm oil from January 2019 to October 2020, it can be seen that palm oil performed better than soybean oil in 2019. It rose for 8 months and fell for 4 months. In the fourth quarter of the peak season of oil and fat consumption, palm oil was all-round. Rose for three consecutive months, the highest increase in December, an increase of 17.56%.
In the first ten months of 2020, palm oil fell for four consecutive months and rose for six consecutive months. The largest decline was in February, exceeding 20%. The biggest increase was in July, exceeding 12%. Palm oil's performance in the fourth quarter was not as good as that of soybean oil. In October, the increase was relatively close to that of soybean oil, rising 7.32%. More than half a month in November, palm oil has risen by nearly 5%, while soybean oil prices have risen by more than 8%.
End consumer demand supports soybean oil palm oil continues to rise
In early November, news appeared frequently, coupled with the impact of La Nina weather, Malaysia's palm oil production forecast was lowered, and multiple bullish factors increased. Soybean oil led the palm oil market to rise sharply. Soybean oil rose more than 100 yuan a day in the first week. /Ton, the overall increase is more than 3%, palm oil rose 50-100 yuan/ton in a single day, the overall increase is close to 2%.
After the price of soybean oil palm oil rose at the beginning of the month, it ushered in an adjustment period. After about a week of dormancy, oils and fats were in the peak consumption season, rigid demand increased, and soybean oil stocks continued to decline. It has fallen for five consecutive weeks to 1.18 million tons. Regarding palm oil, Malaysian palm oil output dropped 16.07% from November 1-15. Supported by bullish factors, soy oil palm oil once again staged a big rise. Soybean oil rose by more than 100 yuan/ton on the 19th, which continued to rise by nearly 5 points from the increase in the beginning of the month. Palm oil also rose by more than 100 yuan/ton in a single day, up more than 4% from the increase at the beginning of the month.
SunSirs agricultural products analysts believe that: in the fourth quarter of the traditional oil consumption peak season, soybean oil stocks fell to a low level, palm oil production continued to decline, US soybean export data was strong, and soybean oil palm oil still has room to rise in the future. It should not be too bearish.
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