Macroeconomics

1. [Public Budget Revenue] According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to November, national general public budget revenue totaled 20,051.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Of this, national tax revenue was 16,481.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; non-tax revenue was 3,570.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Broken down by central and local government, central general public budget revenue was 8,846.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue was 11,205.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.

2. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the job market indicates the Fed should continue to cut interest rates, and that the Fed's interest rate level is 50 to 100 basis points higher than the neutral rate. Waller does not believe that inflation will accelerate again.

3. [UK CPI] The UK's November CPI slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, the lowest level since March of this year; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.2%, the lowest level since July 2024. The UK's November retail price index decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest decrease since July 2023.

4. [Japanese Exports] Data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance showed that Japan's exports to the United States increased by 8.8% year-on-year in November, the first increase in eight months. Imports from the US increased by 7.1%, the fourth consecutive month of increase. Japan's exports to China decreased by 2.4% in November.

Agricultural Products

1. [Soybean Meal] According to the National Grain and Material Reserve Data Center on December 17th: Currently, domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventories remain at a high level of over one million tons. Downstream purchasing activity is low, and coastal oil mills face significant inventory pressure. Basis prices have fallen slightly, maintaining a pattern of lower prices in the south and higher prices in the north.

2. [Soybeans] Data released by SECEX shows that Brazilian soybean exports so far in December are significantly higher than the same period last year. From December 1st to 12th, Brazilian soybean exports totaled 1.65 million tons, compared to 2.006 million tons in December last year.

3. [Palm Oil] Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting stated that Malaysian palm oil inventories may further increase to 2.9 million tons by the end of December 2025, higher than the 2.84 million tons at the end of November. The report stated that Malaysian palm oil exports in December are estimated at 1.18 million tons, lower than the historical average of 1.43 million tons.

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