According to SunSirs price monitoring, as of September 16, the domestic average ex-factory price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fiber was 9,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the beginning of September, an increase of 1.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.74%. The launch of new seeds has been postponed, cotton linters have remained strong, orders have picked up, viscose shorts have been raised one after another, and rayon yarns have taken advantage of the upward trend.
In early September, due to the postponement of the launch of new seeds, the processing plants mainly purchase stale cotton seeds, and the cost is still high. In addition, the operating rate has fallen. The supply of cotton linters is limited. It is difficult for downstream chemical fiber plants and cotton mills to start normally. The lack of short velvet restricts its market development. Market supply and demand seesaw, and cotton linter prices remain stable. Before a large number of new seeds go on the market, cotton linters are expected to maintain a stable pattern. On the other hand, recently affected by the US hurricane, cotton prices have risen sharply, and the purchase price of new cotton may rise.
As of September 16, the average ex-factory price of 30S rayon yarn in Shandong was 13,133 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the early September price, an increase of 0.51%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.75%. Viscose staple fiber rose strongly, but orders for rayon yarn did not keep up. Most manufacturers held prices, and low prices rose slightly. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand, new seeds will be available soon, raw material supply is expected to increase, viscose may fall, and rayon yarn manufacturers are cautious in adjusting prices.
In terms of output, according to relevant data, in July 2020, my country produced 2.239 million tons of yarn, a decrease of 4.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%; the production of cloth was 3.29 billion meters, a decrease of 1.79% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%; production of chemical fiber 5.247 million tons, a decrease of 4.16% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2020, my country's textile and apparel exports reached 30.924 billion U.S. dollars, down 1.18% from the previous month.
SunSirs analysts believe that viscose quotations have been firm recently, with mainstream quotations at 9,000-9,500 yuan/ton. The viscose yarn has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and is bullish. With the abundant supply of raw materials, it is expected that the quotation center of viscose staple fiber market will shift downward.
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