SunSirs data showed that the natural rubber commodity index on August 27 was 34.18, up 0.15 points compared with the previous day, 65.82% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 25.29% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Among many factors, the delay of new rubber and the shortage of spot rubber are the biggest factors leading to the rise of natural rubber market this month. In 2020, due to the special situation, epidemic situation, weather and other factors, the opening time of Southeast Asia production area was delayed, the release of raw material production was slow, and the rubber production was greatly affected, so the annual production reduction was inevitable. The market expects that the supply side of Southeast Asia will not increase indefinitely in the third and fourth quarters. At the same time, the amount of new rubber in Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China is not optimistic so far. Local traders say that the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province are basically empty, and the shortage of goods continues.
The shortage of spot rubber coincides with the peak season of traditional sales. In recent months, the operating rate continued to rise slightly, and it is expected that the tire industry in the third quarter will be improved to some extent. At present, some enterprises have attracted the tide of price rise. In the context of economic recovery, downstream demand is gradually warming. Several groups of data show that the warming up of the automobile industry will bring about a sustained growth in the downstream demand of natural rubber since the third quarter of the year. Although the speed is relatively slow, the peak sales season is coming, and there are still strong expectations in the industry for the peak season of downstream demand.
In terms of the market future, the traditional consumption peak season is coming, and the purchasing demand is enhanced. In addition, there is a shortage of domestic rubber and some imported rubber in many places, and the trend of natural rubber concussion is expected to continue. However, some of the natural rubber trade has not made much profit so far, and the rise of natural rubber will not be a continuous big rise state. The market has high expectations for the peak season, so we should keep a cautious and long-term view.
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