According to SunSirs data monitoring, in the first half of 2020, the price of soybean meal was still rising sharply in March, and the decline began in the second quarter. It fell for three consecutive months, with a decline of more than 16%. Starting from July 1st, under the support of bullishness, soybean meal ushered in an inflection point, and the price bottomed out, mainly oscillating. As of July 22, the average soybean meal market price was 3,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25%.

Inventory pressure drops, soybean meal begins to exert force in July

Beginning in April, soybean meal has been declining, falling throughout the second quarter, and the overall decline in the second quarter was 16.75%. The continuous decline in soybean meal prices in the second quarter was mainly due to the poor performance of external disks, coupled with excessive inventory pressure, and the inventory volume continued to rise, which exceeded 1 million tons at the end of June.

Beginning in July, the rigid demand of terminal aquaculture companies increased, aquafeed was in the peak consumption season, and the pressure on soybean meal stocks gradually eased, and the inventory continued to decline. As of the week of July 17, soybean meal stocks had fallen below 900,000 tons. With the support of bullishness, soybean meal prices ushered in the rising market that market participants have been looking forward to. Spot prices have risen all the way. Although there are occasional callbacks, soybean meal prices are still difficult to stop. On July 22, the average spot market price of soybean meal exceeded RMB 3,000/ton, an increase of more than 5% from the beginning of July.

Imports of raw soybeans doubled, soybean meal growth limited

Imported soybeans in April totaled 6.71 million tons, more than 2 million tons more than in March, and reached 9.377 million tons in May. By June, the number of imported soybeans reached 11.16 million tons. From January to June 2020, my country imported 45.03 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 6.78 million tons, an increase of 18%, which is a record high.

Imported soybeans remained high in the third quarter. Soybean meal stocks are currently at a low level. Due to the rise in soybean oil prices, the operating rate of soybean oil plants has increased. In the future, soybean meal stocks are expected to quickly return to high levels. Soybean meal spot prices are under pressure, rising and falling. 

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the weather theme hype is still in July, so soybean meal cannot be overly bearish. It is also true that the number of imported soybeans is high. In the long-short game stage, soybean meal has always had limited room to rise, and it still oscillates upward.

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