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SunSirs: Terminal replenishment was positive after Labor Day, and plate increased 1.35% (05.04-05.09)
May 13 2020 08:19:09SunSirs(Molly)

1. Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, this week (May 04, 2020-May 9, 2020) prices of medium and heavy plates increased. Puzhong Board (Material: Q235B; Specification: 20) The price on May 04 was 3560 yuan / ton, and the price on May 9 was 3608 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.35% from the beginning of the week. Judging from this week's trend, the demand has little stamina and steel price increases are limited. It is expected that the domestic medium and heavy plate market will not rise much in the short term, so caution is needed.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Price adjustment of steel mills: This week, domestic steel mills have mainly raised their ex-factory prices. On the one hand, after the holiday season, market demand was eye-catching, and steel mills took advantage of the trend to raise prices; on the other hand, as raw material prices rebounded, steel mills intend to pass on cost pressures.

Market situation: The demand for terminal replenishment was released this week, and domestic building materials transactions performed well. On the first trading day after the holiday, the market was optimistic and the trading atmosphere was warm; on Thursday, the market rally continued and the overall shipments were still performing well; Friday and Saturday, high resource transactions were weak, and the overall shipments were getting higher Down. In general, in May, China vigorously promoted infrastructure investment, and the real estate industry also recovered. Demand will still maintain a certain intensity, which will have a certain supporting effect on current building material prices.

Inventory: This week's Shanghai stock rebar inventory was 472,800 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week; from the national inventory statistics, the main city rebar inventory decreased by 464,700 tons, wire stocks decreased by 97,200 tons from last week. This week, the national building materials social inventories continued to decline, but the decline has narrowed, mainly due to the impact of the holiday. It is expected that there will still be room for increase in production capacity in the later period, and the release of demand is limited, so the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in time, or it may have a certain negative impact on the price of building materials.

3. Future market forecast

The return of the "May Day" holiday, the enthusiasm for terminal replenishment increased, and the black futures rebounded after the opening of the stacked commodity night market, driving the domestic construction steel prices to rise overall; this week, the price of raw materials represented by coke and scrap steel rose again, resulting in production The center of cost has shifted upwards, and steel mills' willingness to increase prices has become stronger. According to market feedback, during this week's price rise, demand has shown a decreasing trend. It is also understood that although the inventory of building materials is in a downward channel this week, the rate of decrease has narrowed compared to the previous month, mainly due to the imbalance in the import and export of warehouses during the holidays, and the further increase in the output of building materials from steel mills, which has led to a sharper contradiction between supply and demand. After entering the middle and late May, the demand delayed due to the epidemic was gradually released, and it is expected that it will be difficult to continue to enlarge in the later period. In addition, with the increase of rainy weather in some areas, it will also form a certain obstacle to the transaction. Once the contradiction between supply and demand escalates later, domestic construction steel prices may fall under pressure. It is expected that the domestic medium and heavy plate market will not rise much in the short term, so caution is needed.

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