Aluminum market trend
According to SunSirs data, as of March 31, the average domestic aluminum ingot market price was 11,500 yuan / ton, which was 14,553.33 yuan / ton compared with the market average price at the beginning of the year (January 1), a decline of 20.98% in the first quarter, of which the average market price in March It fell by 1,686.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 12.79% during the month.
The main cause of stage influence
January-February: Affected by the Spring Festival and the domestic epidemic, the upstream and downstream operating rates have moved downwards, the production capacity and production have been relatively lowered, and domestic demand practices have been lowered. However, due to its continuous production characteristics (high parking and maintenance costs), the output of primary aluminum is relatively more dynamic than that of downstream demand, compared with other months.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2020, the output of 10 non-ferrous metals in China was 9.354 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. Among them, the output of primary aluminum was 5.847 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the output of alumina was 10.451 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%; the output of aluminum material was 5.906 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%.
From January to February, before the traditional Chinese New Year, the resumption of the epidemic situation has been delayed, the trading has been weak, and the price of aluminum has moved downward, with a small margin.
March: Affected by the outbreak of foreign epidemics, the crude oil plummeted, panic spread in the market, and the metal plate of the futures market became loose. After the silver plunge, the non-ferrous metal plate fell sharply. Based on the panic in the capital market and pessimistic market demand expectations, the price of aluminum has fallen sharply.
Cost factors rise
At present, the price of aluminum ingots has touched the cost of some manufacturers. Since late March, there have been approximately 6 domestic production reduction and maintenance companies (including plans), affecting the production capacity of 445,000 tons per year. Guangyuan Zhongfu (Phase 1), Baiyin Tianlin, Yunlu Aluminium Heqing (Phase 2), etc., have a total of about 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the operating rate is not expected to be too high.
From the perspective of historical price trends, the current price level is not high, and the cost support is strong. Demand is expected to warm in the second quarter. It is expected that in the near future, it will be stable and strong.
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