Under the current U.S.-Iran tensions, base metal prices have diverged significantly.

Aluminum stands as one of the strongest performers among base metals. As of March 5, LME aluminum traded at approximately $3,310 per tonne, down 0.8% year-on-year but up about 5% from its February 27 closing price of $3,141 per tonne.

On March 3, Qatar Energy announced that its subsidiary Qatar Aluminium Company would gradually halt production, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 650,000 tons. The official reason cited was the suspension of Qatar's natural gas production, forcing the phased shutdown of electrolytic aluminum operations. This news directly drove a surge in global aluminum prices.

On March 4, Bahrain Aluminium Company, operator of one of the world's largest smelters, warned customers that shipments had been suspended.

Copper, which surged significantly in 2025, has shown weaker momentum in this round. As of press time, LME copper was quoted at approximately $12,943 per ton, below the February 27 closing price of $13,296 per ton.

The disparity in regional production capacity shares is the direct cause of the divergent trends in aluminum and copper.

According to statistics from Nonferrous Metals Network, Iran has four aluminum smelters. In 2025, its installed capacity reached 660,000 tons with an actual output of 620,000 tons, accounting for approximately 0.8% of global production. The Middle East's total primary aluminum capacity reaches 6.92 million tons, with actual output around 6.85 million tons, accounting for 9% of global aluminum ingot supply. It stands as one of the world's core low-cost primary aluminum production regions.

Notably, the Middle East relies heavily on imported raw materials for primary aluminum production, with natural gas serving as the primary feedstock.

As natural gas prices rise, this could potentially impact European electrolytic aluminum capacity in the future. Expectations for European electrolytic aluminum production resumption are likely to weaken further, with the possibility of production cuts even emerging.

As of the market close on March 4, the April contract price for Dutch TTF natural gas futures—the benchmark for the European market—stood at €48.767 per MWh.

Once aluminum production halts, restarting operations demands significant time and capital investment.

Copper resources in the Middle East remain limited. Although Iran holds proven copper reserves of approximately 100 million tons, its output reached only about 320,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025—accounting for just 1.7% of global production. Saudi Arabia's output does not exceed 100,000 tons.

Compared to aluminum, the current market sentiment for copper is relatively weak (with international copper prices around $13,000 per ton and domestic prices exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton).

Global refined copper inventories now approach 2 million tons, indicating overall oversupply. The U.S.-Iran conflict has driven up oil and gas prices, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures and dampening downstream copper demand. Simultaneously, reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts are collectively weighing on copper prices.

In this US-Iran conflict, market attention is focused on copper logistics risks. During the 2023 round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, copper shipments between Asia and Europe shifted from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.

Although significant copper price increases are unlikely, current prices still offer substantial profit margins relative to production costs.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on March 6, the SunSirs aluminum benchmark price was 24,406.67RMB/ton, an increase of 4.27% compared with the beginning of the month (23,406.67 RMB/ton).

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