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SunSirs: Toluene Fell Sharply Following The Sharp Drop of International Oil Price and The Lack of Demand in This Week (March 23-27)
March 31 2020 13:10:27SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs data, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3,450 RMB/ton, down 8.73% from last week.


Analysis review   

Product: The overseas epidemic continued to spread, and concerns about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, coupled with the fact that Saudi Arabia has no signs of resuming production reduction negotiations. Affected by this, international crude oil prices continue to fall sharply this week, and the price of toluene in Korea, the main source of toluene, has plummeted. Although domestic enterprises have gradually entered the resumption period, the market demand has been improving slowly, and the domestic toluene price has fallen. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3,600 RMB/ton.

Industry chain: On the upstream side, in terms of crude oil, this week's international oil prices continued to fluctuate after a sharp fall this week. As of Friday, the spot Brent fell 7.21%, Brent futures fell 4.12%, WTI futures fell 0.77%, and Dubai futures fell 10.45%

On the downstream side, in the case of TDI, the current domestic cargo delivery invoices are reported at around 10,100 RMB/ton, and it is expected that the TDI market will be difficult to be optimistic next week. Pay close attention to the factory's late news guidelines and actual market transactions. In the PX market, the listing price of domestic Sinopec companies is about 5,000 RMB/ton this week, and the latest external disk prices are about FOB South Korea at about 473 USD/ton and CFR China at about 491 USD/ton. It is expected that the PX market price next week will remain down trend.


Market outlook

Toluene analyst of SunSirs believes: next week, we need continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, concern about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises' resumption. Taken together, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and the South Korean market will continue to fluctuate widely next week, and the price of toluene in the domestic market may follow the shock next week.


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