According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the trend of natural rubber has continued to rise recently. The spot rubber market in China's natural rubber market was around 13,160 RMB/ton on November 16, and around 12,860 RMB/ton on November 1, an increase of 2.33%.
In November, natural rubber fluctuated and rose, with the Shanghai Rubber 01 contract continuously fluctuating from around 14,200 RMB/ton to 14,550 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 11,600 RMB/ton, bulk at around 10,300 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 9,600 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 9,500 RMB/ton.
On the supply side, the main production areas in Southeast Asia are still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production areas are affected by more periodic rainfall. The rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas has increased, which has hindered the overall output of raw materials and led to an increase in raw material prices; The increase in rainfall in the Hainan production area has hindered the production of glue; The weather in the Yunnan production area is normal, and the production of raw materials is normal. The domestic Yunnan production areas will gradually enter a period of cutting cessation, and the performance of raw material purchase prices will be strong. With the arrival of winter, the enthusiasm of processing plants for rubber collection and production has increased, supporting the natural rubber market. As of November 12, 2023, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 723,500 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1.24% month on month. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to destock, and the overall inventory destocking rate has slowed down.
On the demand side, the overall operating rate of rubber tire enterprises remains stable: the production schedule of semi steel tire enterprises is stable, and most enterprises still have a shortage of snow tires. As enterprises gradually schedule production, the shortage phenomenon has been alleviated; The operating rate of all steel tires has remained basically stable, with slow shipments. Recently, inventory has increased, and currently the main focus is on destocking.
The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining recently. On the one hand, the rebound in OPEC exports has put pressure on oil prices. Due to the seasonal decline in internal demand in the Middle East region, its export share has increased. Data shows that OPEC crude oil exports have increased by about 1 million barrels per day since reaching a low point in August, which to some extent alleviated the pressure of supply tightening caused by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the market. On the other hand, there are still concerns about the current level of inflation in the United States, indicating that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates in the future, causing the US dollar to rise and putting pressure on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold denominated in US dollars. On the last hand, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region.
The recent rainfall in foreign raw material production areas may ease, and the production of raw materials will improve; In mid to late November, rubber cutting will gradually stop in the Yunnan region of China, and domestic raw material production will be slightly reduced; At present, the export situation of tire enterprises is good, and there is a certain demand and positive support for the natural rubber market in the short term; Recently, the futures market has been fluctuating and rising, supported by natural rubber prices. At present, terminal demand is still weak, and there are many positive factors in the near future. It is expected that the natural rubber market may be dominated by high volatility and consolidation in the near future.
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