The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on September 20, and the retail price of refined oil may rise again. The 2023 retail price adjustment has gone through "nine rises, six falls, and three strandings". During the cycle, the crude oil market price has significantly increased, and the rate of change is constantly expanding. The domestic refined oil retail price may experience the "tenth increase" of the year.
Entering this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices have significantly increased. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $91.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $94.34 per barrel. The international oil market has shown a strong trend during this price adjustment cycle, mainly due to expectations of supply tightening overshadowing concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventories. The Petroleum Exporting Organization and its allies (OPEC+) have extended the deadline for production cuts, while leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their plans to cut crude oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year. The significant continuous supply gap caused by the cuts may lead to tight crude oil supply in the fourth quarter, and institutions and investors are generally bullish on oil prices. The demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States remains strong, especially with a significant increase in diesel futures; As the weather turns colder and winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, the peak season for heating oil demand begins, and the market remains optimistic. Positive factors support international oil prices, and the trend of international oil prices has risen. As of the 20th, the change rate of crude oil varieties was 7.62% on the 10th working day. It is expected that gasoline will increase by 385 RMB/ton, and diesel will increase by 370 RMB/ton, with price increases of 89# 0.28 RMB, 92# 0.30 RMB, 95# 0.32 RMB, and 0# 0.31 RMB. This round of finished oil retail prices is facing the "tenth" increase this year.
In terms of gasoline: On the one hand, domestic gasoline is strongly supported by the cost of crude oil, and on the other hand, it has entered the peak season of gold, silver, and ten consumption. With the arrival of the Mid Autumn and National Day holidays, downstream merchants have increased their replenishment mentality, and refinery inventory remains low. Most manufacturers may stock up in advance, which is a combination of positive factors, and the domestic gasoline market continues to rise.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the diesel market prices have continued to rise, and the high temperature weather in China has gradually subsided. The workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries has gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand has increased, supporting the domestic diesel market. Foreign demand for diesel in Europe and America remains strong. As the weather turns colder and winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, the peak season for heating oil demand has begun. Recently, diesel export profits have been considerable, The enthusiasm for diesel exports remains strong, providing strong support for the diesel market. Overall, the price trend in the domestic diesel market is rising.
In the future, both macro and fundamental factors support oil prices in the short term. It is expected that international oil prices will maintain a strong trend in the expectation of tight supply. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains high, and the supply is relatively loose. Some gasoline companies may replenish their inventory in advance, and gasoline demand is supported. In the later stage, gasoline market prices will remain high; In terms of diesel, the operating rate of outdoor operations has gradually increased, the fishing ban period has ended, and diesel demand has recovered, supporting domestic diesel prices. There is still room for improvement in the diesel market trend.
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