1. Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, plate prices have fallen sharply this week (February 9, 2020-February 10, 2020). The price of ordinary steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was RMB 3,592/ton on February 9, and RMB 3,491/ton on February 10, down by 2.81% from the previous day. From a trend perspective, the price of mild steel plate may continue to fall in the short term.
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Demand-side: This week's epidemic prevention and control continue to be the most important task for governments at all levels. The resumption of work will continue to be delayed. People's awareness of health protection will increase, and construction and manufacturing resumption will be greatly affected. The impact is greater. At present, the measures for controlling the movement of people in many places are still tightening, and the return of migrant workers to the city is generally delayed. Even migrant workers who have arrived in the city also face 7-15 days of isolation. It is expected that the resumption of construction and manufacturing will be a gradual process. It will take quite a long time to return to the normal production level, and the arrival of the peak season of steel market demand will also be significantly delayed.
In terms of production: The epidemic has greatly disturbed the production schedule of steel production enterprises. Due to factors such as declining demand, tight transportation, and employee safety, some steel mills have accumulated large amounts of finished product stocks, and at the same time, insufficient raw material stocks have led to passive production cuts.
In terms of logistics: The impact of the epidemic on the logistics of the steel industry cannot be ignored. At present, inter-provincial highway transportation is near-stagnation, which has a major impact on the procurement of raw materials and the cross-regional flow of finished steel products by inland steel companies. The impact of iron and steel enterprises is relatively small, but the resumption of warehouse and terminal operations in many regions has been delayed, which has caused a large negative impact on the overall resource circulation. As a result, a large amount of raw material inventory has accumulated in raw material manufacturers and ports and finished material inventory has accumulated in steel companies. Conducive to the healthy operation of the industry.
3. Future Forecast
With the development of the epidemic, many places continue to postpone the resumption of work, the start of school, and stricter restrictions on the movement of people and transportation. The downstream start of construction has continued to be delayed, and steel stocks have accumulated sharply, and this week is expected to expand. The backlog of resources to steel mills. It is expected that plate prices may continue to fall in the short term.
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