SunSirs: Weak Demand, China Rapeseed Meal Fell by a Narrow Margin

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 4,108 RMB/ ton on November 4 and 4,084 RMB/ ton on November 10, with a drop of 0.58% during the period, 3.63% lower than that on October 1.

During November 4-10, rapeseed meal spot declined by a narrow margin. In terms of supply, before November, the import of rapeseed was relatively small, the supply of rapeseed was insufficient, and the operating rate of oil plants was not high. At present, the rapeseed stock is at a low level in recent years, limiting the falling space of rapeseed. According to statistics, as of the week of November 4, the rapeseed meal inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi was only 1,000 tons, while that in Fujian was 500 tons. Although it was slightly improved compared with the zero inventory in the previous week, it was still at a historical low. It is estimated that a large number of domestic rapeseed imports will arrive in Hong Kong from November to December. According to statistics, the arrival of rapeseed in November will be 590,000 tons, 470,000 tons more than that in October. Rapeseed meal supply will be improved in the later period. In terms of demand, the weather is cooling, the feeding of aquaculture is weakening, the rapeseed meal ushers in the traditional off-season, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the negative market is weakening.

In terms of soybean meal: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal was 5,514 RMB/ ton on November 4 and 5,660 RMB/ ton on November 10, with an increase of 2.65%, 0.37% higher than that on October 1. The operating rate of soybean oil plants is low, the supply of soybean meal continues to be tight, and the rigid demand for terminal feed supports the good market, which supports the market of rapeseed meal and limits the downward space of rapeseed meal. The price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal is large, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious.

In terms of supply, Canada's rapeseed production increased, and China's purchase of imported rapeseed is expected to arrive in Hong Kong in large quantities, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to ease in the later period. In terms of demand, in winter, aquaculture is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weakened. SunSirs rapeseed meal analysis predicts that rapeseed meal will tend to be volatile and weakin China.

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