SunSirs: It is Hard to Reverse the Market Situation of "Strong Diesel and Weak Gasoline" in China

The situation of "strong diesel and weak gasoline" has been maintained for more than two months. As of September 9, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,228.2 RMB/ ton, down 12.97% from the price at the beginning of September; The domestic price of 0# diesel oil was 8,786.6 RMB/ ton, up 3.27% from the beginning of September, mainly due to demand factors, lower gasoline prices and higher diesel market.

In terms of gasoline: since September, the epidemic has spread in many places, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to enter the market has been greatly frustrated, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has been sluggish, and the market price has continued to decline. The operating rate of refineries is maintained, the supply is loose, the resource supply of local refineries is relatively abundant, in addition, the gasoline inventory has risen, the operators' intention to enter the market is reduced, the market buying and selling atmosphere is light, and the gasoline price has dropped significantly.

Diesel: At present, large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries are actively speeding up. At the same time, agricultural oil use is increasing in the autumn harvest season in the north. As the temperature drops, -10 diesel is replaced, and the operation rate of outdoor infrastructure and industrial and mining has increased. In addition, affected by the increase in export volume, the trade between South China and East China and the purchase of main units in Shandong increased, which led to a decline in the inventory of locally refined diesel in Shandong. The diesel sales were in good condition, and the diesel market rose. However, the diesel continued to approach the wholesale price limit, limiting the rise of diesel.

In terms of crude oil: since September, the international crude oil price has fallen first and then risen, with little overall change. As of August 8, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States had been 88.91 dollars/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had been 95.36 dollars/barrel. OPEC will start to reduce production in November, when crude oil production declines, strongly supporting oil prices. EIA data shows that the US crude oil export volume has reached a record high, and the US total crude oil inventory has fallen to a nearly 21 year low, promoting the rise of crude oil prices. However, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices. The oil demand expectation in Asia is still uncertain. With the mid-term elections in the United States looming, the market's worries about demand have depressed oil prices. On the whole, the crude oil price remained volatile, the cost support remained, and the domestic oil product market was supported to some extent.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, an oil product analyst from SunSirs, believes that international oil prices remain volatile. There is no good holiday boost for gasoline, travel is limited in some areas, demand for gasoline is poor, and prices are still at risk of falling. At present, the operating rate of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is stable, diesel exports are increasing, diesel resources are still tight, and diesel prices may maintain the trend of wholesale price limit.

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