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Soybean Meal Market Rose Strongly, Pay Attention to the USDA Supply and Demand Report

May 14 2021 08:33:11     Zhaojin Futures (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2109 rose sharply on Wednesday, closing at 3769 (up 95), with a total lightening of more than 20,000 hands, and a significant increase in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: the long positions are concentrated to lighten their positions, the amount of positions held is greatly reduced, and the concentration of funds is greatly reduced; the short positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, and the amount of positions decreased slightly, and the degree of concentration is fine-tuned. U.S. soybeans have continued their strength recently. Domestic soybean meal futures prices have followed strong. The bulls in the night trading actively increased their positions. After the market rushed higher, the market oscillated strongly. The bulls in the late trading sharply reduced their positions. We will focus on the supply and demand report issued by the US Department of Agriculture in the early hours of tonight. The bottom of the soybean meal cycle has risen to maintain a strong and uptrend pattern. After the market drops, focus on low and many opportunities, short-term or continued strong fluctuations, and pay attention to the trend of external disks and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing is supporting the overall strength of commodities, and external disk, supply and demand and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. In terms of supply, the planting of US soybeans has been progressing rapidly recently, and the rainfall in North America has been low. The uncertainty in the area of ​​US soybeans planted has increased the difficulty of the US soybean supply and demand balance sheet. In 2021, China's imports of US soybeans may reach a new high. In terms of demand, the profit of pig farming has weakened and the replenishment may be slower than expected. However, downstream aquatic products have led to an increase in demand and the decline in soybean meal stocks. In the long term, the recovery of the large cycle of pig farming will be confirmed, which will stimulate the long-term demand for soybean meal. Operational reference: the market has fallen to an important support zone, and you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 may continue strong volatility in the short term. If there is a downward trend in the market, pay attention to low and many opportunities. Short-term operation: hold more than 5% of the capital position, drop below 3750 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3650-3700 area, you can consider trying more. If the market rises near 3800 and above, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: continue to hold 10% more fund positions at the low level or fall back to near 3600 and place mid-line long orders. Key short-term positions: 3750, 3800.

Market news: Last month, the US Department of Agriculture reported data: 20/21 U.S. soybean production remained at 112 million tons, Brazil’s output was raised by 2 million tons to 136 million tons, and Argentina’s output remained at 47.5 million tons; inventory: 20/21 U.S. soybean production Restocking was maintained at 3.25 million tons, and global soybean carryover stocks were raised 3.07 million tons to 86.87 million tons. Affected by the recent rise of swine fever, farmer households have slaughtered more, and the pig stock has declined for two consecutive months from January to February. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of the end of January 2021, the stock of reproductive sows has increased by 1.1% month-on-month, which is the 16th consecutive month of growth and a year-on-year increase of 35%. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. As of the week of March 26, the soybean meal inventory of domestic coastal oil plants was 743,100 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 128.15%.

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