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SunSirs: Long-Short Game, China's Soybean Meal Has Twists and Turns in April

April 30 2021 08:31:00     SunSirs (Linda)

April Soybean Meal ended the March's sharp decline and ushered in a rising market. After half a month of sustained surge, the negative pressure was suppressed. Soybean Meal plunged high and the market fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of soybean meal in the market was 3482 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of soybean meal in the market was 3,527 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.29%.

Soybean meal performed strongly in the first quarter of 2020, with both February and March rising, and in March it rose by more than 15.12%. The whole second quarter fell and fell.

The trend in 2021 is opposite to that in 2020. Soybean meal prices rose sharply for two weeks in January, with a maximum increase of 10%. After the sharp rise, the price of soybean meal ushered in a decline, falling for two consecutive weeks. Since February, soybean meal has continued its downward trend. During the Spring Festival, under the influence of U.S. soybeans, soybean meal ushered in a supplementary increase after the holiday, and the price rose slightly for two weeks. Soybean meal started a continuous decline in March, with a monthly decline of more than 10%. Entering April, the price of soybean meal began to bottom out and rebounded. Due to the unfavorable factors, the diving market ushered in after the big rise, with an overall increase of 1.29%.

Long-short game, April soybean meal market has twists and turns

At the end of March, the U.S. Soybean report data was bullish. Soybean meal, which had fallen for two and a half months, finally ushered in a rebound. Because U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean meal rose across the board, on April 1, even soybean meal rose sharply with the market, and the soybean meal spot market rose sharply. The price is 3,500 yuan/ton, a single-day increase of nearly 5%. After the Ching Ming Festival, the bullish news was digested by the market. Soybean meal stocks were still at a high of 770,000 tons, and the market weakened. Driven by the futures market, prices rebounded slightly.

Beginning in mid-April, soybean meal once again ushered in a rising market, the external market for US soybeans rose, domestic soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, and soybean meal stocks fell. In the week of April 16, soybean meal stocks had fallen to 650,000 tons, down 6.74 on a week-on-week basis. %. The external disk rose, the inventory pressure eased, and the soybean meal spot oscillated and rose from the 16th to the 26th, an increase of 3.98% on the 4th.

At the end of April, the price of soybean futures in the external disk fell, and the arrival of imported soybeans in the second quarter is expected to increase. Supply pressure is still there, and soybean meal stocks are falling slowly. Soybean oil plants are not confident enough to stand up to the price. They lowered the ex-factory price of soybean meal, and the spot market for soybean meal continued to fall, opening the diving market with a drop of more than 2%.

After the holiday, the amount of imported soybeans to Hong Kong increased, the supply pressure doubled, the US soybean planting period, there is still room for speculation, and there is still room for soybean meal prices to rise in the future, so you cannot be too bearish.

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