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Zhengzhou Sugar Shocks Dominated Recently

April 15 2021 09:05:49     COFCO (Linda)

Internationally, the southern hemisphere is currently at the stage of alternating new and old crushing seasons. Brazilian sugar mills are about to be fully squeezed. Under the premise that huge supplies are coming, nougat will be under pressure. However, due to logistics factors, Brazil’s raw sugar is difficult to produce. After being shipped out in a short period of time, nougat is still strong in the short term, and the role of inflation expectations is gradually magnified. It is expected that nougat will oscillate recently. However, Zhengzhou Sugar is currently in the off-season of consumption and the pressure from imports still exists. Domestic sugar inventories are high. In the first half of the year, Zhengzhou Sugar is under pressure and the market lacks opportunities. It is expected that Zhengzhou Sugar will be mainly supported by neotose in the near future. The risks of exports and macro factors.

In terms of price difference, the average value of the 9-1 price difference of sugar in the past 10 years is -24, the standard deviation is 204, and the closing price difference on April 14 is -164, with a percentile of 25.6%, which is relatively low in the same period in history. Since the end of January, the 9-1 spread has oscillated and expanded. On the 14th, the 09 contract quickly fell. The 9-1 spread expanded to -164, a new low since February. If the SR09 contract breaks the 5200-5250 support range, and if it triggers a short-term acceleration, the 9-1 spread may be further widened. In operation, you can consider SR9-1 reverse set, the price difference is around -150 to enter the market, and the target is around -300. If the price difference is reduced to around -70, you need to leave the market in time, for reference only.

Note:

1. This strategic view is made by researchers based on the information they have, and the actual results may be very different due to conditions. Investors must make independent trading decisions. The team and the company do not make any guarantees about the results of the transaction.

2. Within the scope of the law, the company or its affiliates may conduct transactions on the products involved, or may provide services for other company transactions.

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