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SunSirs: External Market Dropped Sharply, and the Soybean Meal Market was under Pressure and Fluctuated

April 06 2021 10:10:05     SunSirs (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2109 was under pressure and fluctuated on Friday, closing at 3507 (down 17), with a total of more than 14,000 lots of Masukura and a decrease in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: the long-term part is concentrated in Masukura, and the amount of holdings has skyrocketed, and the concentration has increased; the short position is mainly dispersed and adjusted, and the concentration of individual positions has increased. The holdings have increased, and the concentration of funds has increased slightly. The US Department of Agriculture report shows that the soybean planting area is estimated to be 87.6 million acres. The market previously estimated that it was 89.996 million acres. The planting area was lower than expected. US soybeans and US soybean meal fell sharply after their daily limit. Domestic soybean meal followed the fluctuations in the external market, and rebounded after opening low in the early trading. The intraday long funds increased their positions significantly. The market expectation changed rapidly and the washing was increased. Short-term or continued shock and washing volatility. Pay attention to the initiative of funds near 3500, pay attention to the trend of the foreign market and the market. Expected changes.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing has weakened the overall support for commodities, and the external disk, supply and demand and market sentiment factors alternately affected the market. The April US supply and demand report exceeded market expectations, and US agricultural products fell after a sharp rise. On the supply side, the U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, and the stock-to-consumption ratio is still at a low level. In 2021, China's imports of U.S. soybeans may reach a new high. In terms of demand, the domestic non-Pest disease has affected the intensive selling of live pigs, and the seasonal demand for soybean meal has declined. However, in the long run, the recovery of the large breeding cycle is confirmed, which stimulates the increase in long-term demand for soybean meal. Operational reference: the market has fallen to an important support zone, and you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 may continue to fluctuate in the short-term and wash up volatility, pay attention to the initiative of funds near 3500. Short-term operation: hold 5% more capital positions and close the position below 3490. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3430-3460 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near and above 3550, you can consider flattening more and reducing more. Band operation: hold 10% more fund positions at a low position or fall back to around 3400 and place a midline long position below. Key short-term positions: 3490, 3530.

Market news: US Department of Agriculture report: The US soybean planting area in 2021 is estimated to be 87.6 million acres, compared with the previous estimate of 89.996 million acres by the market. The actual planted area in 2020 is 83.084 million acres. US soybean stocks for the March 1 season were 1,564,164 million bushels. The previous market estimate was 1.534 billion bushels, compared with 2.254882 billion bushels in the same period last year. Affected by the recent rise of swine fever, farmer households have slaughtered more, and the pig stock has declined for two consecutive months from January to February. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of the end of January 2021, the stock of reproductive sows has increased by 1.1% month-on-month, which is the 16th consecutive month of growth and a year-on-year increase of 35%. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. As of the week of March 26, the soybean meal inventory of domestic coastal oil plants was 743,100 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 128.15%.

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